Maunder minimum

[W8EJO]

For those of us looking forward to the next solar cycle this could be bad news. Not good for heat bills either.

Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 9, 2008 11:53 AM

http://www.dailytech.com/Solar+Activity+Diminishes+Researchers+Predict+Another+Ice+Age/article10630.htm

[AF9J]

Yep,

The last Maunder minimum, may have played a part in the Little Ice Age. It was possibly the reason why the Viking Colonies in Greenland died off in the 15th Century (it became too cold to grow their own food).  There were periods, where for decades there were no sunspots.

73,
Ellen - AF9J

[Ed KB1HVS]

The following is the first quote that was posted on the article. I have to say I agree with it. Clean air and conservation dosen't hurt no matter how you feel about global warming.


 Quote:"What is really disappointing about stories like this are the comment that follow. It is not too bold to say that scientific illiteracy is (one of) the first world's greatest threat.
This is simply one piece of information among many, and none of us here are qualified to make sweeping statements about the truth/fallacy of entire fields of scientific study. Even individuals within the field aren't qualified to do that.

I like John McCain's approach: whether or not global warming is real, the tenets of following a global warming sensitive lifestyle and society - i.e., clean up and reduce pollution, conserving wilderness, planting trees, etc - is still a good thing for us to start really taking seriously and putting effort into, if only to leave our descendants a healthy, clean, and rich planet. Why would anyone reasonably want to do less than that?

[W8EJO]

planting trees, etc - is still a good thing for us to start really taking seriously and putting effort into,

Yes, plant trees by all means. We may need them to stoke the fires to keep warm.

As to actions WE can take, consider complexity theory before you take ANY action:
http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speech-complexity.html

As to man made GW, definitely read what Reid Bryson has to say on the subject before you buy that theory: http://www.wecnmagazine.com/2007issues/may/may07.html

I'm far more concerned about what this means to prorogation above 14mc. for the next 7-8 years.

[WA1GFZ]

gee I'll be 89 in 2040 I was hoping for warm. Guess I'll have to get use to eating blubber.

[k4kyv]

80 and 160m propagation should be great.  The QRN level should be lower.  Time to lay those ground radials!   

In the early 21st century, it's become clear that air pollution can significantly reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth, lower temperatures, and mask the warming effects of greenhouse gases. Climate researcher James Hansen estimates that "global dimming" is cooling our planet by more than a degree Celsius (1.8°F) and fears that as we cut back on the pollution that contributes to dimming, global warming may escalate to a point of no return. Regrettably, in terms of possibly taking corrective action, our current understanding of global dimming has been a long time in the coming, considering the first hints of the phenomenon date back to 18th-century observations of volcanic eruptions.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/dimming.html

[ka3zlr]

planting trees, etc - is still a good thing for us to start really taking seriously and putting effort into,

Yes, plant trees by all means. We may need them to stoke the fires to keep warm.

As to actions WE can take, consider complexity theory before you take ANY action:
http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speech-complexity.html

As to man made GW, definitely read what Reid Bryson has to say on the subject before you buy that theory: http://www.wecnmagazine.com/2007issues/may/may07.html

I'm far more concerned about what this means to prorogation above 14mc. for the next 7-8 years.   
;

 Hi Terry,

 Those two links bring in some interesting reading thanks.

73.

[WA1GFZ]

so Far it seems like global insulation. Winters are not as cold as they used to be around here.
Yes plant trees and hang antennas.

[W8EJO]

planting trees, etc - is still a good thing for us to start really taking seriously and putting effort into,

Yes, plant trees by all means. We may need them to stoke the fires to keep warm.

As to actions WE can take, consider complexity theory before you take ANY action:
http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speech-complexity.html

As to man made GW, definitely read what Reid Bryson has to say on the subject before you buy that theory: http://www.wecnmagazine.com/2007issues/may/may07.html

I'm far more concerned about what this means to prorogation above 14mc. for the next 7-8 years.   
;

 Hi Terry,

 Those two links bring in some interesting reading thanks.

73.

Yes there are many studies from scientific sources that completely contradict the currently accepted wisdom. Makes you wonder why you never read about this stuff in the news.

Here is just a small sample:
http://ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/canada/baffin/donard_2001.txt

http://ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/france/burgundy2004.txt

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/vostok/vostok.1999.temp.dat

The last one is not a study but an opinion article by an MIT climate physicist which may explain some of this.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220

[W8EJO]

Another article yesterday on this topic:

The Canadian Space Agency’s radio telescope has been reporting Flux Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.

http://www.britsattheirbest.com/001645.php

[Jerry-n5ugw]

When the earth cools Al Gore will be touted as a world hero for bringing the global warming to an end...

Then years later we will be required to burn any fossil fuel device 24/7 to help with increasing the global temperature to keep from freezing to death...

[W3RSW]

Couple of things,
w3ego, there's a huge blank space after your remarks; did we miss a pix or something?

There's a famous (dutch painter, I think) picture of Dutch skaters having a merry ol' time skating on the canals in the Netherlands back in the Maunder minimum era.  Soft sunlight and reflections from the ice, etc.  Very beautiful.  When I was in grade school we were instructed that ice skating was how the Dutch got around in the winters.  Lately, of course, I'll bet that has changed.  We seem to be in the throes of something similar to the Maunder min.  ; next cycle will help tell the tale. Wonder if it'll be a double dipper again and less than previous?

But lest you think I'm espousing PC global warming, e.g., "climate change," be advised that the study of anything over a very small (perhaps insignificant, numerically) portion of the summation of unknown cycles is really chasing phantoms.

Solar constants, galactic rotation through dust clouds, elliptical orbit variations, precession, nutation, cycles as yet unknown and unnamed, ....?   Ocean currents disrupted by very slow continental drift seems to be the driver of how we got in the current several million year cycle of periodic ice ages every 20,000 years...   

As a society we suffer from huge bouts of innumeracy (numerically illiteracy) when it comes to just about everything.
What's a few score (and that's really stretching it) years in relation to the four billion that Earth's been around?  -Even as a percentage, pretty much nil.

How many of you have noticed days when every cloud in the sky is made by a jet through expanding contrails?  (- usually just in advance of a cold front. - )
 Guess you have to work outside to notice such things along with sun dogs and other natural phenomena that were once seen and taken for granted by just about everybody.

How many of us even see the sky on a moonless dark night in all its glory anymore?  Yes, our children for the most part are being raised as hot house tomatoes.  Guess if you ask our parents, and for sure our grandparents, we are too. 
    My point is simply, if you take Al Gore, et.al., and place them in Siberia for a good taste of - 60 deg. winter, an opinion or two might change..  For that matter, take them out of their A/C'd SUV's, thermostatically torqued palaces, leased jets and made 'em walk around outside in the winter and summer, some real semblance of climate might occur to them.

[W3SLK]

Bingo, Rick!!! You have hit the nail on the head. The last 20~30 years is nothing but a sliver in the grand scheme of things. Without being PC, our Creator has proven that things on this earth occur in cycles, (kind of like RF). We don't know where we are going but science seems to prove where we have been. And that in and of itself shows highs and lows throughout the earth's history. Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti-green. I grateful by the fact that we reduced the use of DDT to replenish our natural habitat, (like bald eagles here in our area!!). Being conscientious about our national resources. But we can't continue to place stumbling blocks in our path.
Wow! I said a mouthful

[W9GT]

    My point is simply, if you take Al Gore, et.al., and place them in Siberia for a good taste of - 60 deg. winter, an opinion or two might change..  For that matter, take them out of their A/C'd SUV's, thermostatically torqued palaces, leased jets and made 'em walk around outside in the winter and summer, some real semblance of climate might occur to them.

Rick,

your points are very well taken!  I think, also, there is a very insidious motive and political undertow associated with all of this man-made global warming stuff.  It is just another way to exercise control over the masses and make us feel guilty for living our lives and consuming resources.  Many scientists, irrespective of what you might hear in the media, do not agree with current frenzy and doomsday predictions of the global warming zealots.  They say that changes in the polar regions and other signs of global warming are not man-made, but rather the result of normal cycles that have occurred over millions of years.  We also need to put all of this current flap in perspective and consider what a small slice of time we have been able to make observations in and not draw hasty conclusions about something that is far more complex than we can possibly understand.  Another interesting thought....Just how accurate were temperature measurements and just how accurate were instruments used in the 1800s?  Or even up to the 1930's or 40's?   Getting all excited about changes of less than a degree over such a time frame when the accuracy of the measurements is highly suspect is ludicrous. What happened to common sense?

73,  Jack, W9GT

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Strange but True: While Solar Cycle 24 has begun, Solar Cycle 23 has not ended. Both cycles will coexist for a period of time, perhaps a year or more, as one dies down and the other comes to life. In the months ahead we may see old-cycle sunspots and new-cycle sunspots on the sun at the same time.



For the complete story, go here:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm

We probably won't start seeing any "great" 10 or 15 meters openings for at least 2 to 3 years.

[W8EJO]

Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

Hope they areright. Today's flux # is lower than yesterday's:

http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml

BTW
here is another great site that discusses some of the GW stuff from a scientific point of view.
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/

[k4kyv]

Rather than scoffing at the idea of global warming, I would say take common-sense precautions, consistent with other environmental and economic concerns.  Wise frugality with energy and other resources, simply avoiding unnecessary waste, would go a long way towards reducing CO2 output, whether that would affect GW or not.  We do not need multi-ton, gas-guzzling, road hogging tanks for our solo-commute to work and back every day, nor do we need to keep houses and schools at 85° F during the winter and 65° during the summer.  We also need to get out of the throw-away-disposable mentality to conserve raw materials and to conserve the fruit of the labour that goes into manufacturing our "stuff".  Energy- and material-saving measures, besides possibly reducing CO2 (regardless of whatever effect that might have on the climate), inarguably saves us money and keeps the costs of everything down.

I don't doubt that some of the present concern is overblown by alarmists, political correctness and the media, as for example, the alleged threat posed by the PCB in radio capacitors and transformers, and the lead in solder.  I wouldn't chew lead solder, and certainly would wash my hands after handling PCB laden components, but there is no justification for panic and going overboard in passing laws and regulations to ban everything that might contain those things, in addition to incandescent lamps and oil-based paint.

[Bill, KD0HG]

Rather than scoffing at the idea of global warming, I would say take common-sense precautions, consistent with other environmental and economic concerns.  Wise frugality with energy and other resources, simply avoiding unnecessary waste, would go a long way towards reducing CO2 output, whether that would affect GW or not.  We do not need multi-ton, gas-guzzling, road hogging tanks for our solo-commute to work and back every day, nor do we need to keep houses and schools at 85° F during the winter and 65° during the summer.  We also need to get out of the throw-away-disposable mentality to conserve raw materials and to conserve the fruit of the labour that goes into manufacturing our "stuff".  Energy- and material-saving measures, besides possibly reducing CO2 (regardless of whatever effect that might have on the climate), inarguably saves us money and keeps the costs of everything down.

I would have once said economics would drive a lot of that stuff, Don, but I've seen very little change in vehicle mix/driving habits with gasoline at over $3. I honestly don't know how how one could afford a long daily commute in a guzzler and hundreds of bucks a month for gasoline. That money's got to be coming out of elsewhere in the economy, but who knows where. Maybe everywhere. The savings rate is zero now, 50 million elderly yuppies broke from driving their SUVs doesn't bode well for the future.


If the public could save a hundred, maybe two hundred bucks a month on fuel by the use of more efficient vehicles, appliances, heating and lighting and they spent most of the savings on durable goods, imagine how that would stimulate the economy over the long-term. Wow.

[W3RSW]

Yes, have to admit that 'control' is one of the basic human drives...  also jealousy, as illustrated by the egalitarian  (class warefare) issues raised by those who want to tell you how to live, and btw, with your money.

I've not really perused closely the articles mentioned, but I have an idea of what they might say.

 I have no argument with those that want to live a little more frugally, Lord knows we waste resources with a capital "R."  ... others have mentioned that what they spend on a kilowatt for their transmitters ought to be between them and the electric company.... but don't you dare espouse that in our current nanny world.   It's not PC to be an energy sink, better to be a energy generator.  (but at what cost?  Do any imagine that the current, very in favor wind generators don't use tremendous gobs of technology backed by a huge, world wide manufacturing base along with the attendant trace mineral, and not so trace by-products wastes they generate?) 

 Did you ever stop to think the technology and manufacturing infrastructure necessary to design and build a 1.5 megawatt wind generator?  Do you think those little Scandinavian Islands proudlly proclaiming their energy independence with wind generators understand where the magnificent machines come from? Do clean and green environmentalists even begin to recognize the "ascent of man," the huge infrastructure necessary to keep all this 'green' technology in the style to which they've been accustomed? ... the shipping across great oceans of all the minutae necessary to keep the so called green machines running? ... the very political mandate of using corn based ethanol for fuel, where I guarantee you the cost of fertilizing,planting and harvesting cost more that the BTU's garnered? ... the unintended consequence of rising food prices?

The sacrifices of your parents and grandparents in the great depression are moot.  What will you sacrifice today?   $3.00/gal. not enough?  'course not.  Would have to be at least $10.00/ gal . or more for you to have equivalent costs to those days.   Yeah, you say, gas was 17 cents/gal., but since (only) 1964 when we went off the last vestige of a real standard (silver) you're looking at a dollar yielding 90% of 1 oz. pure silver in exchange in any bank.  Now it's closer to $20/oz.   I can't believe it was only $14.50 last time I mentioned it a month ago.

Back to global warming.    "damn, we got to do something about those NASA satellite temp. maps." finally has morphed into "look at the 'emongus' temp. climbs of those temp. maps."   Wonder who forgot to include the first 20 years of data on that one.  And as I mentioned before, have you really thought what 20 / 200 mil. is? -  or maybe 20 / 4 billion as anything of significance?

Heat Islands:   temp. data taken by those cute little white, slatted shacks on a pole over the years, since 1898 .
Way back when they started they were in the country. Entire Cities have since built around them.  Now we marvel at what they 'read.'  Some have even been found to be located these days next to air conditioner "A" coils, of all things to raise a local heat reading.  Virtually every study dependent on any gov't funding has been found to promulgate 'global warming.'  Guess where the funding, popular alarmist media have their money? 
Group think, herd instinct, I suppose.  - Control again..   and good for taxing the ignorant.  And  guess who of the elitists will still be driving around in their chauffeured SUV's...their biz jets, etc....  yeah, the egalitarian stuff even gets to me.   But in the case of the few telling the masses how to live, ALWAYS true. and so will it be always.  Our challange is to recognize it and continue to expose and fight it - in all forms, some very well hidden.
No paranoia here, just the facts.

Carl Sagan had it right.  We live in a demon haunted world.  And when popular demons begin to go stale,... the ol' USSR nuc. threat, etc., why, we invent our own!  Ever since JPL discovered the high pres.- high temp. CO2 atmosphere of Venus we've been on a virtual love fest of global warming. 

Be advised that the Russians are promoting natural "Fur" in advance of the coming cooling.   
Always a way to make a buck from the glitteratti.....     I'm a gettin' in line to corner fur futures.
If nothing else, I'll use em to make static electricity when the planet runs out of 'orrel.' 

Funny how the Russkies always seem to come up with really useful ideas..   I'll be using thermoelectric power from my seal oil lamp before you know it to work u on 3733.... pw CW,  of course.  Don't wanna waste any BTU"s 

[k4kyv]

Carl Sagan had it right.  We live in a demon haunted world.  And when popular demons begin to go stale,... the ol' USSR nuc. threat, etc., why, we invent our own!

Ever since the final days of the Roaring Twenties, we've thrived on having some kind of "enemy".  Despite all the promises of the New Deal, it was WW2 that got us out of the Great Depression.  As soon as we defeated Hitler and Japan, Communism instantly became our new enemy, and we thrived on the Cold War for 45 years.  When the Soviet Union imploded and Communism finally collapsed in 1990, we floated aimlessly for about a decade without a definitive enemy, but then the attacks of 11SE01 occurred, and now once again, we are standing on firm ground; we have our enemy, this time "terrorism".  It's back to business as usual.

[KA1ZGC]

Carl Sagan had it right.  We live in a demon haunted world.  And when popular demons begin to go stale,... the ol' USSR nuc. threat, etc., why, we invent our own!

Ever since the final days of the Roaring Twenties, we've thrived on having some kind of "enemy".  Despite all the promises of the New Deal, it was WW2 that got us out of the Great Depression.  As soon as we defeated Hitler and Japan, Communism instantly became our new enemy, and we thrived on the Cold War for 45 years.  When the Soviet Union imploded and Communism finally collapsed in 1990, we floated aimlessly for about a decade without a definitive enemy, but then the attacks of 11SE01 occurred, and now once again, we are standing on firm ground; we have our enemy, this time "terrorism".  It's back to business as usual.

You put "terrorism" in quotes?

I guess those images of people plummeting to their deaths off the top floors of the twin towers rather than die in the flames didn't strike you as something that might have been at least as much worth attempting to adjudicate as the sinking ships in Pearl Harbor.

Bummer.

[k4kyv]

I guess those images of people plummeting to their deaths off the top floors of the twin towers rather than die in the flames didn't strike you as something that might have been at least as much worth attempting to adjudicate as the sinking ships in Pearl Harbor.

Yes of course, but apparently, we got sidetracked.

[ka3zlr]

Those people falling to their deaths was from a False Flag Operation culminating another war on something....what ever the name is, it is neither winnable nor obtainable.. it is what it is...Business...the poor souls serving from the protective hamlets earn their honor everyday within their units...another action to be Sustained...

[W8EJO]

  We do not need multi-ton, gas-guzzling, road hogging tanks for our solo-commute to work .

Why do you feel compelled to tell me what I need?

I'm amazed at how the self-anointed among us want to restrict my freedom of vehicle choice based on the flimsiest of "science".

Here's some real science for you:

Since CAFE standards went into effect in 1978, there have been about 63,000 additional highway deaths due to these standards not to mention tens of thousands of additional serious but nonfatal crash injuries. All  because we are no longer able to drill an oil well or build a refinery & because someone has  created a CO2 bogeyman.

You may not care a wit about my family's safety but their safety is far more important to me than atmospheric CO2 which, by the way, is naturally produced when every mammal on earth exhales.

[KB2WIG]

I dont care about pollution

Im an air-conditioned gypsy

Thats my solution

Watch the police and the tax man miss me

Im mobile

Oooooh, yeah, hee!