The AM Forum

For those of us looking forward to the next solar cycle this could be bad news. Not good for heat bills either.

Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 9, 2008 11:53 AM

http://www.dailytech.com/Solar+Activity+Diminishes+Researchers+Predict+Another+Ice+Age/article10630.htm

Yep,

The last Maunder minimum, may have played a part in the Little Ice Age. It was possibly the reason why the Viking Colonies in Greenland died off in the 15th Century (it became too cold to grow their own food).  There were periods, where for decades there were no sunspots.

73,
Ellen - AF9J

The following is the first quote that was posted on the article. I have to say I agree with it. Clean air and conservation dosen't hurt no matter how you feel about global warming.


 Quote:"What is really disappointing about stories like this are the comment that follow. It is not too bold to say that scientific illiteracy is (one of) the first world's greatest threat.
This is simply one piece of information among many, and none of us here are qualified to make sweeping statements about the truth/fallacy of entire fields of scientific study. Even individuals within the field aren't qualified to do that.

I like John McCain's approach: whether or not global warming is real, the tenets of following a global warming sensitive lifestyle and society - i.e., clean up and reduce pollution, conserving wilderness, planting trees, etc - is still a good thing for us to start really taking seriously and putting effort into, if only to leave our descendants a healthy, clean, and rich planet. Why would anyone reasonably want to do less than that?

Yes, plant trees by all means. We may need them to stoke the fires to keep warm.

As to actions WE can take, consider complexity theory before you take ANY action:
http://www.michaelcrichton.com/speech-complexity.html

As to man made GW, definitely read what Reid Bryson has to say on the subject before you buy that theory: http://www.wecnmagazine.com/2007issues/may/may07.html

I'm far more concerned about what this means to prorogation above 14mc. for the next 7-8 years.

gee I'll be 89 in 2040 I was hoping for warm. Guess I'll have to get use to eating blubber.

80 and 160m propagation should be great.  The QRN level should be lower.  Time to lay those ground radials!   

In the early 21st century, it's become clear that air pollution can significantly reduce the amount of sunlight reaching Earth, lower temperatures, and mask the warming effects of greenhouse gases. Climate researcher James Hansen estimates that "global dimming" is cooling our planet by more than a degree Celsius (1.8°F) and fears that as we cut back on the pollution that contributes to dimming, global warming may escalate to a point of no return. Regrettably, in terms of possibly taking corrective action, our current understanding of global dimming has been a long time in the coming, considering the first hints of the phenomenon date back to 18th-century observations of volcanic eruptions.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/dimming.html

 Hi Terry,

 Those two links bring in some interesting reading thanks.

73.

so Far it seems like global insulation. Winters are not as cold as they used to be around here.
Yes plant trees and hang antennas.

Yes there are many studies from scientific sources that completely contradict the currently accepted wisdom. Makes you wonder why you never read about this stuff in the news.

Here is just a small sample:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleolimnology/northamerica/canada/baffin/donard_2001.txt

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/france/burgundy2004.txt

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/vostok/vostok.1999.temp.dat

The last one is not a study but an opinion article by an MIT climate physicist which may explain some of this.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008220

Another article yesterday on this topic:

The Canadian Space Agency’s radio telescope has been reporting Flux Density Values so low they will mean a mini ice age if they continue.

http://www.britsattheirbest.com/001645.php

When the earth cools Al Gore will be touted as a world hero for bringing the global warming to an end...

Then years later we will be required to burn any fossil fuel device 24/7 to help with increasing the global temperature to keep from freezing to death...

Couple of things,
w3ego, there's a huge blank space after your remarks; did we miss a pix or something?

There's a famous (dutch painter, I think) picture of Dutch skaters having a merry ol' time skating on the canals in the Netherlands back in the Maunder minimum era.  Soft sunlight and reflections from the ice, etc.  Very beautiful.  When I was in grade school we were instructed that ice skating was how the Dutch got around in the winters.  Lately, of course, I'll bet that has changed.  We seem to be in the throes of something similar to the Maunder min.  ; next cycle will help tell the tale. Wonder if it'll be a double dipper again and less than previous?

But lest you think I'm espousing PC global warming, e.g., "climate change," be advised that the study of anything over a very small (perhaps insignificant, numerically) portion of the summation of unknown cycles is really chasing phantoms.

Solar constants, galactic rotation through dust clouds, elliptical orbit variations, precession, nutation, cycles as yet unknown and unnamed, ....?   Ocean currents disrupted by very slow continental drift seems to be the driver of how we got in the current several million year cycle of periodic ice ages every 20,000 years...   

As a society we suffer from huge bouts of innumeracy (numerically illiteracy) when it comes to just about everything.
What's a few score (and that's really stretching it) years in relation to the four billion that Earth's been around?  -Even as a percentage, pretty much nil.

How many of you have noticed days when every cloud in the sky is made by a jet through expanding contrails?  (- usually just in advance of a cold front. - )
 Guess you have to work outside to notice such things along with sun dogs and other natural phenomena that were once seen and taken for granted by just about everybody.

How many of us even see the sky on a moonless dark night in all its glory anymore?  Yes, our children for the most part are being raised as hot house tomatoes.  Guess if you ask our parents, and for sure our grandparents, we are too. 
    My point is simply, if you take Al Gore, et.al., and place them in Siberia for a good taste of - 60 deg. winter, an opinion or two might change..  For that matter, take them out of their A/C'd SUV's, thermostatically torqued palaces, leased jets and made 'em walk around outside in the winter and summer, some real semblance of climate might occur to them.

Bingo, Rick!!! You have hit the nail on the head. The last 20~30 years is nothing but a sliver in the grand scheme of things. Without being PC, our Creator has proven that things on this earth occur in cycles, (kind of like RF). We don't know where we are going but science seems to prove where we have been. And that in and of itself shows highs and lows throughout the earth's history. Don't get me wrong, I'm not anti-green. I grateful by the fact that we reduced the use of DDT to replenish our natural habitat, (like bald eagles here in our area!!). Being conscientious about our national resources. But we can't continue to place stumbling blocks in our path.
Wow! I said a mouthful ;)

Rick,

your points are very well taken!  I think, also, there is a very insidious motive and political undertow associated with all of this man-made global warming stuff.  It is just another way to exercise control over the masses and make us feel guilty for living our lives and consuming resources.  Many scientists, irrespective of what you might hear in the media, do not agree with current frenzy and doomsday predictions of the global warming zealots.  They say that changes in the polar regions and other signs of global warming are not man-made, but rather the result of normal cycles that have occurred over millions of years.  We also need to put all of this current flap in perspective and consider what a small slice of time we have been able to make observations in and not draw hasty conclusions about something that is far more complex than we can possibly understand.  Another interesting thought....Just how accurate were temperature measurements and just how accurate were instruments used in the 1800s?  Or even up to the 1930's or 40's?   Getting all excited about changes of less than a degree over such a time frame when the accuracy of the measurements is highly suspect is ludicrous. What happened to common sense?

73,  Jack, W9GT

Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Strange but True: While Solar Cycle 24 has begun, Solar Cycle 23 has not ended. Both cycles will coexist for a period of time, perhaps a year or more, as one dies down and the other comes to life. In the months ahead we may see old-cycle sunspots and new-cycle sunspots on the sun at the same time.

(http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/images/solarcycle24/newspot_strip.jpg)

For the complete story, go here:
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10jan_solarcycle24.htm)

We probably won't start seeing any "great" 10 or 15 meters openings for at least 2 to 3 years.

Hope they areright. Today's flux # is lower than yesterday's:

http://www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/current_flux.shtml

BTW
here is another great site that discusses some of the GW stuff from a scientific point of view.
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/

Rather than scoffing at the idea of global warming, I would say take common-sense precautions, consistent with other environmental and economic concerns.  Wise frugality with energy and other resources, simply avoiding unnecessary waste, would go a long way towards reducing CO2 output, whether that would affect GW or not.  We do not need multi-ton, gas-guzzling, road hogging tanks for our solo-commute to work and back every day, nor do we need to keep houses and schools at 85° F during the winter and 65° during the summer.  We also need to get out of the throw-away-disposable mentality to conserve raw materials and to conserve the fruit of the labour that goes into manufacturing our "stuff".  Energy- and material-saving measures, besides possibly reducing CO2 (regardless of whatever effect that might have on the climate), inarguably saves us money and keeps the costs of everything down.

I don't doubt that some of the present concern is overblown by alarmists, political correctness and the media, as for example, the alleged threat posed by the PCB in radio capacitors and transformers, and the lead in solder.  I wouldn't chew lead solder, and certainly would wash my hands after handling PCB laden components, but there is no justification for panic and going overboard in passing laws and regulations to ban everything that might contain those things, in addition to incandescent lamps and oil-based paint.

I would have once said economics would drive a lot of that stuff, Don, but I've seen very little change in vehicle mix/driving habits with gasoline at over $3. I honestly don't know how how one could afford a long daily commute in a guzzler and hundreds of bucks a month for gasoline. That money's got to be coming out of elsewhere in the economy, but who knows where. Maybe everywhere. The savings rate is zero now, 50 million elderly yuppies broke from driving their SUVs doesn't bode well for the future.


If the public could save a hundred, maybe two hundred bucks a month on fuel by the use of more efficient vehicles, appliances, heating and lighting and they spent most of the savings on durable goods, imagine how that would stimulate the economy over the long-term. Wow.

Yes, have to admit that 'control' is one of the basic human drives...  also jealousy, as illustrated by the egalitarian  (class warefare) issues raised by those who want to tell you how to live, and btw, with your money.

I've not really perused closely the articles mentioned, but I have an idea of what they might say.

 I have no argument with those that want to live a little more frugally, Lord knows we waste resources with a capital "R."  ... others have mentioned that what they spend on a kilowatt for their transmitters ought to be between them and the electric company.... but don't you dare espouse that in our current nanny world.   It's not PC to be an energy sink, better to be a energy generator.  (but at what cost?  Do any imagine that the current, very in favor wind generators don't use tremendous gobs of technology backed by a huge, world wide manufacturing base along with the attendant trace mineral, and not so trace by-products wastes they generate?) 

 Did you ever stop to think the technology and manufacturing infrastructure necessary to design and build a 1.5 megawatt wind generator?  Do you think those little Scandinavian Islands proudlly proclaiming their energy independence with wind generators understand where the magnificent machines come from? Do clean and green environmentalists even begin to recognize the "ascent of man," the huge infrastructure necessary to keep all this 'green' technology in the style to which they've been accustomed? ... the shipping across great oceans of all the minutae necessary to keep the so called green machines running? ... the very political mandate of using corn based ethanol for fuel, where I guarantee you the cost of fertilizing,planting and harvesting cost more that the BTU's garnered? ... the unintended consequence of rising food prices?

The sacrifices of your parents and grandparents in the great depression are moot.  What will you sacrifice today?   $3.00/gal. not enough?  'course not.  Would have to be at least $10.00/ gal . or more for you to have equivalent costs to those days.   Yeah, you say, gas was 17 cents/gal., but since (only) 1964 when we went off the last vestige of a real standard (silver) you're looking at a dollar yielding 90% of 1 oz. pure silver in exchange in any bank.  Now it's closer to $20/oz.   I can't believe it was only $14.50 last time I mentioned it a month ago.

Back to global warming.    "damn, we got to do something about those NASA satellite temp. maps." finally has morphed into "look at the 'emongus' temp. climbs of those temp. maps."   Wonder who forgot to include the first 20 years of data on that one.  And as I mentioned before, have you really thought what 20 / 200 mil. is? -  or maybe 20 / 4 billion as anything of significance?

Heat Islands:   temp. data taken by those cute little white, slatted shacks on a pole over the years, since 1898 .
Way back when they started they were in the country. Entire Cities have since built around them.  Now we marvel at what they 'read.'  Some have even been found to be located these days next to air conditioner "A" coils, of all things to raise a local heat reading.  Virtually every study dependent on any gov't funding has been found to promulgate 'global warming.'  Guess where the funding, popular alarmist media have their money? 
Group think, herd instinct, I suppose.  - Control again..   and good for taxing the ignorant.  And  guess who of the elitists will still be driving around in their chauffeured SUV's...their biz jets, etc....  yeah, the egalitarian stuff even gets to me.   But in the case of the few telling the masses how to live, ALWAYS true. and so will it be always.  Our challange is to recognize it and continue to expose and fight it - in all forms, some very well hidden.
No paranoia here, just the facts.

Carl Sagan had it right.  We live in a demon haunted world.  And when popular demons begin to go stale,... the ol' USSR nuc. threat, etc., why, we invent our own!  Ever since JPL discovered the high pres.- high temp. CO2 atmosphere of Venus we've been on a virtual love fest of global warming. 

Be advised that the Russians are promoting natural "Fur" in advance of the coming cooling.   
Always a way to make a buck from the glitteratti.....     I'm a gettin' in line to corner fur futures.
If nothing else, I'll use em to make static electricity when the planet runs out of 'orrel.'  :)

Funny how the Russkies always seem to come up with really useful ideas..   I'll be using thermoelectric power from my seal oil lamp before you know it to work u on 3733.... pw CW,  of course.  Don't wanna waste any BTU"s 

Ever since the final days of the Roaring Twenties, we've thrived on having some kind of "enemy".  Despite all the promises of the New Deal, it was WW2 that got us out of the Great Depression.  As soon as we defeated Hitler and Japan, Communism instantly became our new enemy, and we thrived on the Cold War for 45 years.  When the Soviet Union imploded and Communism finally collapsed in 1990, we floated aimlessly for about a decade without a definitive enemy, but then the attacks of 11SE01 occurred, and now once again, we are standing on firm ground; we have our enemy, this time "terrorism".  It's back to business as usual.

You put "terrorism" in quotes?

I guess those images of people plummeting to their deaths off the top floors of the twin towers rather than die in the flames didn't strike you as something that might have been at least as much worth attempting to adjudicate as the sinking ships in Pearl Harbor.

Bummer.

Yes of course, but apparently, we got sidetracked.

Those people falling to their deaths was from a False Flag Operation culminating another war on something....what ever the name is, it is neither winnable nor obtainable.. it is what it is...Business...the poor souls serving from the protective hamlets earn their honor everyday within their units...another action to be Sustained...

Why do you feel compelled to tell me what I need?

I'm amazed at how the self-anointed among us want to restrict my freedom of vehicle choice based on the flimsiest of "science".

Here's some real science for you:

Since CAFE standards went into effect in 1978, there have been about 63,000 additional highway deaths due to these standards not to mention tens of thousands of additional serious but nonfatal crash injuries. All  because we are no longer able to drill an oil well or build a refinery & because someone has  created a CO2 bogeyman.

You may not care a wit about my family's safety but their safety is far more important to me than atmospheric CO2 which, by the way, is naturally produced when every mammal on earth exhales.

I dont care about pollution

Im an air-conditioned gypsy

Thats my solution

Watch the police and the tax man miss me

Im mobile

Oooooh, yeah, hee!

Terry:

No one is telling you what you need. Don is stating an opinion that a fuel-efficient vehicle is appropriate transportation under many or most circumstances. As far as safety is concerned, my observation is that I see a great many more rolled, smashed and crashed 4X4s and SUVs along the side of our winter roads than 2WD cars. Not a scientific statistic, of course, but a practical observation on my own part and that of our Highway Patrol.

Perhaps someone needs to look at how many more thousands of traffic injuries might have occurred due to people overconfidently driving their SUVs way too fast for road conditions, because it happens here all the time.

The possibility exists that when you look at all the angles, you're no safer in a large vehicle than a more agile and controllable one with the latest safety technology.

In a head-on, of course, the vehicle with the larger mass wins, otherwise there are significant advantages to the other. If you skid and hit a fixed object or go off the road, you're equally in trouble. The larger vehicle offers no advantage.


When conditions warrant, I drive my 4-ton diesel F-250 4X4. If I need to work in the hills on a barely-graded road or in deep snow, it's mandatory. But it's a dinosaur. It doesn't have even close to the control and road feel that our 1-ton Ford Focus has. The near 30 MPG we get with it is a bonus.

If you want to look at an impartial rating of relative vehicle safety, look at the insurance industry's statistics. They're the ones that have to set appropriate premiums based on reality.

http://www.iihs.org/ratings/default.aspx

You will see that size and weight have nothing to do with how safe a vehicle is. But things like computerized stability control do. The Toyota Tundra is statistically the safest pickup to drive, my F-250 didn't even make the insurance industry list. Neither did trucks by Kenworth.

here's Money Magazine's list, again, no correlation between size and safety:

http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/autos/iihs/index.html

And this has nothing to do with drilling oil wells or refineries.

-Bill

Thank you Mr. Townshed!   ;)

73,
Ellen - AF9J

With less than five percent of the world’s population, we consume about one quarter of the world’s energy resources.  If we don't take our own measures to reduce our consumption in the near future, the rest of the world is going to take the measures for us.


When mammals exhale and excrete, we emit CO2 that was derived from the plant matter we consumed, directly or indirectly, from food.  The plants that grow the food in turn, consume CO2 excreted by animals and break it down into carbon, the major component of plant matter, and release oxygen back into the atmosphere, which animals must breathe to survive.  It is a closed cycle, and the carbon content of the atmosphere remains constant.  But when we burn petroleum products, we are re-releasing carbon back into the atmosphere that was bound up in deep underground reservoirs for millions of years, until it was pumped out in the form of oil, thus increasing the net carbon content of the atmosphere.  In other words, burning petroleum products tends, to a greater or lesser extent, to revert the earth's atmosphere back to a previous era that existed millions of years ago, long before humans roamed the earth.

My opinion is FWIW, that the jury is still out on whether or not, and to what extent, this is affecting the climate.

FB....Then Let the rest of the world Take measures....Let them..who ever them is..regardless...."Savings" is an elusive illusion...saving what for what..to do what..i can save my wheat for my animals on the Farm for winter feed..that's a good thing..but will be consumed eventually...I can Save my earnings in the bank for a rainy day...when needed..it will be consumed....my reasoning is this...the only way any of this is going to work irregardless of what quantity is left for production..is,,,Everyone has to do a part..and I'm not seeing it at all...and we never will..Try talking to a Soccer Mom she can't have her Fav Humvee anymore..Haa Haa Haa Fat chance there..

 The only way "We" are going to get out of this money pit is to advance..Burn it all and Burn it Soon...Then ...when there's none left..we'll go another direction...

besides..i haven't Seen one Sign Yet...on any gas station that says.."No Gas"... 8)

In the meantime, I'll do my energy-guzzling with incandescent lamps and full-carrier AM transmitters, but save on fuel costs while driving my Mazda Protégé.

We also feed half the world and our private charities do more around the world than all the other nations combined and we're the first to respond to disasters around the world and.....

I'd call it a fair deal.

With China revving up its own highly polluting industrial revolution, largely paid for with US dollar(ettes), and India following in its footsteps, how long before they take the same kind of  "measures" with petroleum products, as they already have with copper?

As in the case of my stock of spare tubes and audio transformers, I am glad I installed my radial ground system back when I did.

The most likely measures will simply be to drive up prices until we have no choice but cut consumption, barring some major flare-up similar to what happened in 1974 with the OPEC embargo. 
 
But supply could be interrupted in other ways, too.  For example, corrupt regimes in countries like Nigeria could finally be overthrown and and oil production be halted until a new government and  distribution of petroleum revenues is restored.  At present, the people of that country are starving and the infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, while a few "officials" are pocketing the cash.  There have already been guerilla attacks on US and European run oil facilities.

How much copper wire, flashing, plumbing and ground strap have you bought lately?

Well Actually there isn't going to be any slow down, baring any interference like Don says, But the actual Backers and Suppliers for this industrial revolution are American..and International Bankers.

Wealth is created through the Debt process, Asia finally woke up... :D

In 1970 my good friend, John Caruso and I went to Europe.

The price of copper was $1.44/lb. Why do I know that? Well, while in the UK, a place where the copper penny was very large, and there were 240 pennies to a pound. Making 1 UK penny = to 1 US penny. If it took less than 144 UK pennies to make a pound you could buy them and make money selling them for scrap copper. That was in fact the case as we took the pennies to a UK Post Office and had them weighted.

The present price of copper is $3.50 a pound. So now that you have been told this is VERY HIGH. Please compare it to the increase you have paid for other items. How about a car. I could buy one in 1970 for about $2500. Can you buy one now for $6000 or so?

In 1981 I was paying $1.55 a gallon for gasoline. I just bought gas in Pinedale, Wyoming for $2.99 today (high because we are in the middle of nowhere). In 1980 I bought a brand new Ford F-150 4X4 with a 302 for $7150. DO YOU THINK I CAN GET ANOTHER F-150 FOR $14,000-$15,000 TODAY?

Along with about a million other people in the US, I work in the Oil and Gas industry. I am my own Oil company, along with consulting for larger Oil and Gas companies. Over my working career I have seen us keep the price of energy the same or LESS for you by us working harder and smarter.

My reward for this work and that of my companions is to be trashed by socialists on every web site I can think of. (Yeh, we are all in a giant conspiracy to screw you)

BTW any fool can look up the history of the Earths CO2 content or its mean temperature. (It's been 72 degrees for 90% of the last 600 million years. It's presently 58 degrees, hasn't been this cool since the glacial-interglacial periods of the Pennsylvanian-Permian......Hmmm only time the CO2 content was this low as well)

Be Thankful morons like Al Gore aren't finding energy for you..........you'd be frozen in the dark today.

73

Marty WB2RJR

That was 1970?  I recall when I was there in the mid-60's, the pound was equivalent to $2.40 USD.  But I also remember that they devalued the pound around 1968 or 1969.  I was living in East Africa then, and indelibly etched in my memory is the big B&W cover photo I saw on a Paris Match magazine displayed at a news-stand, showing the look of angst on the face of a British businessman on a street of London, upon hearing the news of the devaluation.  IIRC, the pound dropped over night down to $1.40 USD.

Regarding the price of copper, you could say the same thing about the audiophool-driven prices of tubes and audio transformers.  Look up the original prices in old catalogues and electronics magazine ads from before WW2 or the early post-War years.  Enter those prices into one of the on-line inflation calculators.  Compare the results with the going prices of those items to-day.

In any case, it cannot be denied that copper took an explosive hike in price a couple of years ago.  Maybe it had gradually become under priced and we became acclimated to bargain-basement copper, just as we became acclimated to pennies-on-the-dollar prices of radio parts as WW2 surplus became plentiful. According to the industry, the price of copper recently went stratospheric because of high overseas demand, particularly from China.

Repeating what I said, as far as I am concerned, the jury is still out on the global warming and CO2 issue.  I'll base my final opinion when I see clear scientific data, not drivel from political windbags from either end of the political spectrum.  If there were presently any irrefutable physical evidence out there, pro or con, you can bet it would be published by reliable sources.  Most of what we hear to-day through the popular media is speculative at best.  Those who smugly claim to "know" the answer already, are relying on faith-based information, i.e., based on faith in their pet viewpoint, probably political and not scientific, regarding the issue.

It just makes good common sense to use energy and all other resources frugally.  Unfortunately, we live under a waste-based economy.

BTW, I am hearing now that the new sunspot cycle has already begun, and that it is expected to be a  good one.  Wait and see...

I recall  during the 60's some kind of controversy near Chattanooga, at a place called Copper Hill, GA.  Don't recall the issue involved, but it was in all the news.  Not sure that it involved copper mining, though.

Our political leaders and our corporate executives have let "offshore" grab us by the BA's, and now it has come back to bite us in the arse.

Whatever the previous and current price of the metal, copper roof flashing is now practically unaffordable.  I just saw an ad in RadioWorld (the BC rag), for soft-drawn copperweld radial wire.  The ad described a product that has the physical characteristics of solid copper, but is much cheaper because it is mostly steel.  Normal copperweld is so springy that it is hard to work with.  They claim that with normal soils, the stuff will last for decades.  That may be true, depending on the soil; I occasionally uproot some of the #10 copperweld (the springy kind) that I buried back in the early 70's, and although green and pitted, the copper jacket is nearly intact.  I suspect that New England soil would have eaten it by now.