Next Sunspot Cycle 30-50% Stronger than Last

[Warren]

Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research predict that the next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the one just past. The cycle is forescast to start 6-12 months later than normal, starting in late 2007 or early 2008. The peak is forecast to be in 2012. The forecast is based on a plasma model of the sun's interior. For more info:
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml

73 Warren K2ORS/WD2XGJ

[Warren]

Good news, except for perhaps waiting another year for 10 to start back up !!

How can increases solar activity effect the orbit of a satellite? 

As one approaches the age of, well, shall we say starting to get some premature snailmail for Senior and Age 50+ people, one starts to view their time remaining in terms of how many sunspot maxima one will see.....  there's my happy thought for the morning!!!

Hi,
     Increased solar flux causes the earth's outter atmosphere to heat and expand, increasing the drag on satellites which in turn affects their orbit.

    I wish you hadn't brought up the age thing!

73 Warren K2ORS/WD2XGJ

[W1RKW]

It should be interesting to see what the weather will be like at solar maximum.

[Warren]

It should be interesting to see what the weather will be like at solar maximum.

Bob,

   Should not be any effect on the weather. The sun's output varies by an extremely miniscule amount in the visible and infra-red range (which is where all the energy is). Over a solar cycle, the solar flux varies at x-ray wavelengths which interacts with the earth's ionosphere but does not penetrate to the lower atmosphere. Even if the x-rays penetrated to the lower atmosphere (which is where the weather happens) they are such a vanishingly small percentage of the energy put out by the sun that it wouldn't make a difference.

73 Warren K2ORS/WD2XGJ

[k4kyv]

If that prediction holds true, it will be the 2nd highest on record, second only to the mother of all cycles, cycle 19, in 1957-58.  I remember that one as a SWL, but missed it as a ham, not getting my ticket until late 59.

The last one was puny, but compare it to the ones in the early 20th century, just as radio was getting off the ground.  No-one noticed those weak cycles, because by the time communication on the upper HF frequencies was developed well enough for comminication, the cycles were already pulling out of the doldrums, and someone had finally observed the relationship between hf propagation and sunspots..

[K1JJ]

It would be very fitting if our ham generation had it's own ass kicking solar cycle - one to remember.

I'm loaded for bear this time with 33 homebrew Yagis (stacked systems) sitting on the ground, ready to go up this spring/summer. And still a few more yet to build. Hope it won't be all for naught, not, knot, nuts.  (I musta been outa my mind last year... )  But putting them up is always the fun part.

T

[Jim, W5JO]

The cycle in the late 79s early 80s was mucho fun.  I used a Collins 32S1 and 75S2 into a Hustler vertical mounted on the top of a metal building about 60X80.  Calling CQ in the early morning yielded more answers from Europe than I could answer from the Texas Panhandle.

The signals were well over 9 and the propogation lasted until the sun set.  In the afternoons it was the Pacific.  What fun.  I sure hope this coming cycle is as good since it may be my last.

[Gary - WA4IAM]

The cycle in the late 79s early 80s was mucho fun.  I used a Collins 32S1 and 75S2 into a Hustler vertical mounted on the top of a metal building about 60X80.  Calling CQ in the early morning yielded more answers from Europe than I could answer from the Texas Panhandle.

The signals were well over 9 and the propogation lasted until the sun set.  In the afternoons it was the Pacific.  What fun.  I sure hope this coming cycle is as good since it may be my last.

Yep, I remember that cycle well. In the spring and summers of 1981-82 I was running a Yaesu FT-7 rig with about 12 watts PEP output into a 10 meter bobtail curtain up about 20 feet. I had recently graduated from college and jobs were scarce (the age of Raygoon), so I had a lot of time for the radio. With that rig and antenna I would get up in the morning, go out to the shack and work Europeans starting at 9:30 am ET and not lose the pipeline until 3:30 or 4 that afternoon, day in, day out. At around 7 or 7:30 pm I'd start working all over the Pacific. Ah yes, I had a wonderful time.

Nothing like the tales passed down about cycle 19, though. That cycle is the stuff of legend!

[Pete, WA2CWA]

The other night I went through my log during the period of the last secondary sunspot cycle peak in 2002/3. From mid September 2002 through mid January 2003, I worked on SSB, 49 states and 98 countries on 6 meters with only 85 watts and 7 element beam. Rig was mostly IC-706MKIIG. When I ran AM, I used the Clegg Thor. Worked a number of West Coast stations and several European stations on 6 AM. During that period I worked 348 different European(West and East) and several stations in Africa. After awhile, I gave up logging U.S. stations, but at the point I stopped, I had 220 west of the Mississippi. Alaska stations numbered 22. Western Canada and NWT numbered 52. Greenland and Iceland numbered 9. Hawaii was in several times to the East Coast, but I got pounded every time by the high power guys. Japan, Australia, and the Far East nevered made it to this location when I happened to be on. I did work the Marshall Islands(or one of those islands) and heard a number of others out there.

The major difference between Cycle 19 and the more recent Cycles, is that a lot more foreign countries now have 6 meter privileges. The next cycle should be lots of fun and excitement. The Johnson 6N2 Thunderbolt should be up and running shortly. Get those 6 meter rigs dusted off and perking. If you thought 160 or 75 was "fun", you should get yourself in gear for some real 6 meter fun and excitement.

Here's a typical 6 meter operator taking a break from the 6 meter action.

[Gary - WA4IAM]

Probably my favourite 6 meter story about cycle 19 was an old timer that told me he took a Gonset gooney-box, stuck a coat hanger in the center of the coax connector on top of the rig to use as his antenna and worked South Africa with an S9 signal. Yea, I could live with another cycle 19! 

[WA3VJB]

Cycle 23 wasn't bad, and was probably the first to enable AMers in the U.K., Europe, scandanavia and the old Soviet region to tell us the AM Revival is there in full swing too !

I spent hours enjoying a friendship with Claude, F5HSH in France, who is in charge of a university's radio and television center.



And when Cycle 24 gets going I hope to again hear him at this kind of signal strength along with others for some international AM we all can enjoy.

http://amfone.net/audio/F5HSH-DX100%60D104~SP600.wav