Interesting that the media is now getting into the act of hyping forecashing oil.
USUALLY... USUALLY... when the media makes a commodity the cover story and predicts prices to double from there, etc... AND, a price surge has just taken place out of the ordinary... AND, the market is stunned with blood on the streets from losses by the short sellers... AND, there is a day
where the price surges up and then sells off sharply - this is at or near the TOP. [I'm talking unleaded gasoline of the futures market, tho the other oils generally trend together when things settle down]
All of the above things have taken place at this time. Normally, like now, it will feel foolish to sell this top and most everyone will predict higher prices cuz "this time is different", and list all kinds of reasons why. But a contrarian trader would at this point say, "enuff is enuff", at least at this point in time and sell short for a decline.
This is not a forecash from me, just a list of evidence from a student of the marketplace. We'll have to see what happens, but I see perhaps more attempts at this top, but lower prices after that and this MAJOR price high will stand for a LONG time as a history high mark. [a new disaster would change my scenario in a heatbeat - the market is the greatest humbler of all]
Want to watch prices during market trading hours? Here's 15 minute delayed quotes of the major commodities on the futures market - free. Look down the list for Crude, heating oil, unleaded gas.
http://www.mrci.com/qpday.asp
T
