The Next Solar Maximum the Smallest in 100 Years?

[k4kyv]

The latest research results by Drs. Leif Svalgaard, Yohsuke Kamide at the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University and Edward W. Cliver at the Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom Air Force Base suggest that the Sun may be less active during the next solar cycle than it has been during the last 100 years.

These results are based upon one of the most successful solar cycle prediction methods in existence. The "Precursor Method" is capable of predicting the magnitude of the next solar maximum up to about 7 years before the solar maximum occurs. This is possible by examining the strength of the magnetic fields that congregate in the polar regions of the Sun a few years before the solar minimum of each solar cycle and relating the strength of those fields to the observed sunspot numbers during the next solar maximum. The polar magnetic fields provide the "seed" magnetic flux necessary to drive the sunspot activity during the next solar cycle.

http://solar.uleth.ca/news/05Mar2005/index.php

[K1JJ]

It's amazing how UNRELATED events conspire [in phase] sometimes to produce big results.

In this case the timing is right for events to produce further declining activity in ham radio.

This next decade will see more old buzzard hams crapping out without new hams coming in, cellphones everywhere taking the thrill outa wireless communications, the internet getting more popular than ever taking hams away,  newbies buying a signal - [boredom],  and now the next solar cycle that will not give ham radio the big boast it does every 11 years.   We don't even know what BPL will do at this point, but that could be another "event" to add on.

In contrast, look at the 50's...  Guys back from WWII looking for leisure hobbies, no computers, lots of military radio  surplus, HUGE sunspot activity, no cellphones, radio still a novelty to communicate, building stuff a big priority, etc.  No wonder it blossomed then.

It's real important for all of us to enjoy the hobby to its utmost while it's still reasonably alive and well.  Ya never know what the future holds.  

There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers...

T

[nq5t]

There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers...

The reason being that everyone but that one guy will be reading/posting/bitching on internet reflectors about how the bezillion dollar SDR they just bought doesn't meet every possible need ... and grumbling that the vendor didn't include them on the engineering team, so the radio is garbage.

I'm convinced that many (most?) hams don't really USE radios anymore.  They buy the fancy radio du jour primarily to have something to talk about on the internet, when they're not posting questions such as "how long is a dipole" :-)

[W1GFH]

There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers...

Kinda like Orson Welles War Of The Worlds...the last ham on the E Coast calling CQ...unanswered http://www.earthstation1.com/WOTW/ww56.wav ....spooky....

[Jack-KA3ZLR-]

Good Article Don,

 The Internet is what it is, it's like anything else, It's the people involved.

 Heck i just hope I make it to the next peak...

[w3jn]

There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers...

Why just the other night I heard Johnny call CQ for an hour or so with no answer.

That, in itself, isn't a bad thing.

73 John

[W1RKW]

It will be interesting to see if any coincidental climatological events will be less severe compared to some of the coincidental events during this last solar peak.

[Bill, KD0HG]

That might just affect the weather...
Some climatologists claim a link between high sunspot activity and the weather.
In fact, the late 90s through 2002 produced some of the hottest, dryest WX the western US has seen in hundreds of years. Combination of high solar activity and Pacific Ocean temperatures.  There was a bad drought that affected the east coast and midwest in the late 90s as well- Remember? Since the last sunspot max, it's gotten a lot cooler and wetter in North America, hasn't it? How about the last two years in Ohio? Cold, wet. Wetter here, too.

[W8ER]

Awww, shoot at it with the old blue rocket. A little Viagra might make the next cycle a big one and if it lasts for more than four years we call our family astronomer! :lol:

--Larry

[wa2zdy]

There is a thread on qrz.com about this very subject.  Below is what I posted on that thread.  It's creepy to think about . . .

The predictions for cycle 24 still aren't as bad as the reality of the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715AD.  There were few to no sunspots recorded during that 70 year period.  The weather was so adversely affect that the River Thames froze over solid for the only time in recorded history in 1715.

http://www.hao.ucar.edu/public/education/sp/great_moments.2.html

One thing for we fans of HF communication to consider . . .   Those familiar with the dawn of radio (well documented in "200 Meters And Down) will recall that upon adoption of the first radio laws in 1912, amateurs were restricted to 200 meters and down (approximately 1500 KHz and up) because the experts of the day believed "short waves" were useless.    Of course we all know the amateurs discovered quite the opposite.

But now here's where some thought comes into play.  Suppose radio had been invented during the Maunder Minimum and there were no sunspots for 70 years.  It's quite likely that amateurs of such an era would have come to the same conclusion - that the short waves were indeed useless.

It is only by happy accident that radio was invented and amateurs discovered short wave propagation at a time when sunspots were plentiful.

[WA1GFZ]

Think about the size of components. home brew will be pretty much dead in the near future unless you own a wire bond machine and electron microscope. Maybe it will come full circle and guys will build spark rigs
in the future and BPL will make so much noise the FCC won't even heart the spark rigs.
We need to find bill GF a gang of firends or he may send the last CQ
being the youngest among us.
gfz Hamin for 39 years and a couple before a license arrived.

[Paul, K2ORC]

There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers...

Why just the other night I heard Johnny call CQ for an hour or so with no answer.

That, in itself, isn't a bad thing.

73 John

None of this would be happening
if Warren Christopher were still alive.

[K1JJ]

But now here's where some thought comes into play.  Suppose radio had been invented during the Maunder Minimum and there were no sunspots for 70 years.  It's quite likely that amateurs of such an era would have come to the same conclusion - that the short waves were indeed useless.

It is only by happy accident that radio was invented and amateurs discovered short wave propagation at a time when sunspots were plentiful.

Very good point!

In a macro sense we lucked out for sure.  Yes, I've seen those long term sunspots plots and often wondered what happened back in the 1600-1700's myself.  It was like a mega-cycle opposed, supressed and snuffed out the smaller 11 and 22 year mini-cycles.  [out of phase, again]

In a micro sense, we go through the same thing day to day. Some times the propagation is dead and at other times it's rocking. Just like surfing, we gotta get out there when the surf is up.

In contrast, the surf is always up on the internet... [sigh]

T

[k4kyv]

... the reality of the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715AD.  There were few to no sunspots recorded during that 70 year period.  The weather was so adversely affect that the River Thames froze over solid for the only time in recorded history in 1715.

Some of the Breughel paintings show skaters on the iced-over canals in the Netherlands.  You would never see that today.

Actually, QRN was probably low, and 160, 80 and 40 would have been excellent during nighttime.  But commercial interests would have pushed hams out of  the way because the total useful amount of spectrum would have been so much less than what it was in the 20th century.

[Herb K2VH]

QUOTE
"There WILL come a time when the last CQ goes out and no one answers."

Will that be the "little voice in the wilderness"?