Propagation Report

[Steve - K4HX]

Latest from the ARRL:

This week geomagnetic indices quieted a bit, and so did solar
activity in general.  Sunspot numbers reached a high of 220 on
November 9, and this week declined, rose to 176 then declined again.
Average daily sunspot numbers slipped 8.4 points to 145. Average
daily solar flux dropped 12.5 points to 161.2.

The most recent forecast predicts a bit lower activity than we've
seen recently.  Predicted solar flux from NOAA and USAF shows flux
values of 150 on November 18-19, 155 on November 20-24, 150 on
November 25, and 145 on November 26-28, then rising to 165 on
December 4-7, which is just a few days before the ARRL 10 Meter
Contest.

[Steve - K4HX]

Part of this week's report.

Not much in the way of solar excitement this week, except there are many sunspots, but the solar activity in terms of flares or coronal mass ejections is low. The overlapping (by one day) average sunspot numbers in this bulletin declined 21 points to 124. Sunspot numbers for November 16-22 were 126, 122, 137, 149, 101, 101 and 132, with a mean of 124. The 10.7 cm flux was 142.3, 147.7, 144.4, 139.6, 139.9, 141.1 and 142.4, with a mean of 142.5. The estimated planetary A indices were 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 5 and 6, with a mean of 3. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 5 and 7 with a mean of 3.

We should see good conditions for the CQ Worldwide DX Contest, which runs this weekend (November 26-27). The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA shows the solar flux at 140 on November 23, 145 on November 24-27, 150 on November 28-29, 155 on November 30, 160 December 1-2, and 165 December 3-7. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 23-27, 7 on November 28-29, and then 5 on November 30-December 24.