New Car Sales - 2008 To 2009 - Sliding Over The Edge

[W1UJR]

This is NOT a political post, just an cogent observation from someone on the front lines.
Forewarned is forearmed, so please keep it nonpolitical fellows.

Enjoy the car sales data attachment, be sure to check your favorite brand, courtesy of one of my vendors.
We've all heard about it on TV, but it is truly shocking to see in black and white the horrific sales decline from 2008 to 2009, especially so with the "Big Three". Many off 30-50% from last February. Even the golden ones, Honda and Toyota, have stumbled terribly.

With the Euro cars, seems that only Mini and VW have come through with a modest loss, Volvo down 59%!
The Chinese are rumored to be circling Volvo if/when Ford spins it off, of course Saab has already entered bankruptcy.
Chinese ownership of Volvo will be the kiss of death, knowing the average Volvo owner (I am one myself), I doubt they feel warm and fuzzy with Chinese ownership.

The rumor mill has the Swedish government backing a purchase of Saab, with the idea of taking it back to what it once was, a very quirky brand, with a very loyal following. The GM standard operating procedure of "rebadge", using another GM platform with a Saab badge stuck on the hood, witness the Saab 92, actually a Subaru Outback, and the Saab 97, a GM Trailblazer, has done wonders in killing the marque.

On the other hand, Hyundai with its "lose your job, give us back the car" offer seems to be doing well. We'll see if that marketing ploy gets adopted throughout the industry. Perhaps the government will get into the biz of "insuring" auto loans, like they are now doing with home loans.

Thankfully service sales are strong, people are keeping what they already own, and hunkering down. I imagine that is true with any product which can be repaired, rather than trashed. But don't think we'll see too many TV repair shops popping up anytime soon. Of course the stats are on new car sales, which take 3 years to hit the aftermarket anyway, the time for the car to get out of warranty. But those unlucky enough to be in the new car biz, selling the iron, and the dealerships, are really feeling the pain right now. That goes double for the companies which supply the auto manufacturers, hurting big time.

It's going to be an interesting year, history is being written here, perhaps even an epilogue, or dare I say an epitaph for some old line American companies?


-Bruce

[W3NP]

I have a 2006 Subaru Tribeca and it appears that Subaru has faired better than most.

[W1UJR]

I have a 2006 Subaru Tribeca and it appears that Subaru has faired better than most.

Hi Dave,
Yes, Subaru composite sales are ok, but only because the truck sales are up something like 63%, car sales down 21%.
I did not know that Subaru made trucks, unless your Tribeca counts as a truck? I've thoguht the new Tribecas look cool, but
they seem more a car to me than a light truck. I do recall that they made a small pickup, Subaru Brat?, a few years back.

What it has done is drive the used car market crazy, people would rather plunk down $8-10K than $20-30K when old Betsy needs replacing. But only certain segments, mostly the smaller, less expensive imports.

[k4kyv]

What ISN'T sliding over the edge these days?

I have a little bit of stock invested in a retirement account, and it had been holding its own throughout all this mess over the past 18 months.  At one time it actually peaked out at an all time high even while the overall market was in free fall.  But this latest plunge the past couple of weeks has pulled it down over 30%.

Now they are even talking about state pensions in some states not being able to make payroll.  I just read somewhere that a total of over $3 trillion in retirement funds is estimated to have evaporated since September.

[WB2YGF]

I have a little bit of stock invested in a retirement account, and it had been holding its own throughout all this mess over the past 18 months.  At one time it actually peaked out at an all time high even while the overall market was in free fall.  But this latest plunge the past couple of weeks has pulled it down over 30%.

Consider yourself lucky.  Only a handful of stocks are hanging in there.  (McDonald's, Dollar Tree, Amazon.com & gold come to mind.)

[Opcom]

People's behavior at work during bad times also changes for the worse:

As things get tighter and many companies are expecting a 30% average reduction in sales, the incidence of two faced and backstabbing behavior is increasing in the sales and marketing departments, maybe among people who consider themselves redundant. No other explanation for the actions. I am experiencing one individual (a veeblefester) doing a combination of:

- grandstanding while highly visible
- trying to make others look incompetent one moment and kissing their butts the next.
- operating from stark backwhipped terror rather than logic
- obfuscating to his management about the status of others' actions and the process of the actions.
- trying to make himself look more important and powerful by "going around" "point of contact responsibles" during high-urgency, high-visibility actions. This is also called "trying to prove a point", when done to step on/over others.
- using a speakerphone unethically, trying to trap others into saying things

The last one is the worst because for example instead of one e-mail exchange per day from me (the CP or contact point) to the CP for the team responsible for the action overseas, that CP person would get tens of e-mails on the same subject from every bozo in the sales org, but yet the CP & team has already done all they can each day, and the matter is already elevated (by me) to the VP level, and my boss and above are already talking to the big shots overseas.

The sick part is that this redundant timewsting is very transparent to everyone else. So this jackfool is going to step in it, and drag his boss into an embarrassment also. I have tried to correct it by tellling him to have his boss call my boss to discuss the management actions. He seemed afraid to have his boss call mine. He wanted to call my boss himself instead. OK fine.

Of course I did not give the veeblefester the name of the CP colleague overseas.
The colleage does not need 10-15 more people breathing down his neck. The BS is really getting deep.

I wonder if similar scenarios are playing out eslewhere. I don't know about others but I can't operate from fear. I don't know how to be driven by fear in the workplace (much to the consternation of more than one manager over the years).

[ka3zlr]

Patrick, hang in there, the S.A's only effect those for so long...just avoid them fools...they show themselves true when they first open their mouths...


Towards the Fall it's gona pick up..it's an Election Year with a New kid on the block and the remnants of W's hitten the road..guard changing hands and the balance sheets are getting cleared out.. that's my feelings on this and it will change...

Good time to buy though...real good time...

As far as Detroit...They just want out of the contracts..it's all business, it has to change up there and it's going to.


73
Jack.

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

And Walmart.

I have a little bit of stock invested in a retirement account, and it had been holding its own throughout all this mess over the past 18 months.  At one time it actually peaked out at an all time high even while the overall market was in free fall.  But this latest plunge the past couple of weeks has pulled it down over 30%.

Consider yourself lucky.  Only a handful of stocks are hanging in there.  (McDonald's, Dollar Tree, Amazon.com & gold come to mind.)

[Bill, KD0HG]

And Walmart.

Steve, I swear that your dream job is to be a greeter...

[W1UJR]

As far as Detroit...They just want out of the contracts..it's all business, it has to change up there and it's going to.


73
Jack.

I think you've got a point there Jack with the idea of GM's threatened/rumored bankruptcy, it is the best way to break the back of the labor unions, which is the only way to get these companies viable again. Not sure the current powers that be, who are deeply beholden to big labor, are going to let that happen. On the other hand, I don't think they'd let GM go away either. Most likely more cash gets pumped in, the inevitable is delayed for a few years, and we have to deal with it down the road.

Of course Honda and Toyota have taken big hits as well, but they are not as hamstrung as the Big Three with union costs and benefits. In any case, I'm not sure how long things can stay idle, if the manufacturers are in trouble, that means all of their smaller contractors, most of which have not and will not get government money, will be strung out as well.

Once these smaller shops, who previously supplied the Big Three, close, chances are they are going to be gone for good, which means more and more production is going to be shifted overseas, if things begin subcontractors to pick up. I say that because in this country, very few see old line manufacturing a good return on investment nowadays. With the smaller and suppliers closes, their employees are going to be looking for work, and will not have the means to buy cars, TVs, SUVs, houses, which is really what starts the economy going again. I see it as vicious circle, and a hard landing.

Toss in the death spiral of the traditional newspaper business, deflation of the housing market, the rise of the powers from the East, and it's going to be an interesting year.

[W3SLK]

Bruce said:

I think you've got a point there Jack with the idea of GM's threatened/rumored bankruptcy, it is the best way to break the back of the labor unions, which is the only way to get these companies viable again. Not sure the current powers that be, who are deeply beholden to big labor, are going to let that happen. On the other hand, I don't think they'd let GM go away either.

I don't think they will go completely under either Bruce. Necessity to US commerce or some other economic description. This happened in the '70's with Potter Electronics. Apparently they had too many government contracts for them to go Tango Uniform. They re-emerged as MILTOPE, Military Take Over Of Potter Electronics, (so I'm told). We had quite a few of their mag-tape drives on ship. Look at what GM has in the way of military contracts. Same goes for Chrysler and Ford, (who is eschewing government funding as opposed to its contemporaries). The unions got fat on the coffers of their workers. To the point it would be just as devastating to the union if just one would fall. As a blue collar worker, I can say that after having my union 'hijacked' by USW, (PM me for details). Its a shame that neither side can come together for the greater good in order to save both from self eradication. Just my spin.

[ka3zlr]

Hi Bruce, some random thoughts I think about

 Well, there are reasons why certain persons Fly around in Lear Jets, and these are the same people that Run the Game...the media has everyone misinformed (given)... You an I and most everyone that reads this Know why Stock is offered, and the game it is...and what are the risks..an the level of play that these same so called over payed and over indulged operators are on is not even close to my wife an I, an I  have no right to complain about their success and I won't, But I understand why things happen, and what the outcome is... don't sit back and complain when we let others control our future...and the whole thing about mortgage, is when I sign those papers It's my responsibility to read the fine print..... you understand this and i think alot of us do there's so many that don't..or living in a dream some folks do.....

Example they Busted Martha for pulling out some years ago... this latest ponsi fella was supposedly mentioned to the SEC what two times...and then he turns himself in...smart move on the under side he made moves that will secure his future after the trail, an he never made a trade.....they Hung Martha out to dry...insider trading...Ponsi Scheme...come on when the birds are singing and the sun is shining...hey the world is great...it werks the same way when money is changing hands and that fella made some bundles, and others lost oh well...I never even heard of him till the money started drying up..imagine if it didn't...there was no investigation on going...and Martha was smart she knew when to pull the plug, somebody cryed the blues and the gang fell in line...why should she get the gains out...like leaving a street poker game when you hit big and it's only 9:00 o'clock and the game is still new...nobody likes that......same same..

So my strategy is Tom Vu framework with street smarts...never bet your pile, use someone elses money...what gains are made is scraped off and put in the reserves, pay the user fee monthly...it's a game with real rules and one is you will lose money....come on...

As with work and the environment Nothing is guaranteed...I don't have the education needed to compete but I do know that Knowledge is real Power, and you have to Learn before you earn...Don't hand over life savings to hands that speculate, you wana play a little, bet a little.. it works for me...I never did buy into that mortgage rap..we bought a farm we could afford, even if I get taken outta action...we got married to think together me an the XYL...

Have a nice Day up there OM, best to the Family...

73
Jack.



 

 

[WA1GFZ]

I'm friggen sick of the excuse "it's just business" as an excuse for being a crook and screwing everyone in your path to better yourself. Pretty sad excuse= bum in my book

[W1UJR]

I'm friggen sick of the excuse "it's just business" as an excuse for being a crook and screwing everyone in your path to better yourself. Pretty sad excuse= bum in my book

As a general rule, those who cheat and abuse their clients/customers are not usually around for a very long time. It is only governments, with their police powers, who can do so with relative impunity. But even that system will fail with time, as productivity falls as a natural consequence of repression, so does the quality of life, eventually leading to revolt. Witness the former Soviet Union.

The only way to oppress a large number of people for a very long time is through a false religion. With the right false religion, you can keep them in the stone age for centuries. Look around the world, those countries with the highest levels of scientific achievement, the strongest economies, and the greatest personal liberty, have one common denominator, a faith which serves to liberate man's intellect, spirit and drive. Now contrast that with the countries which routinely practice genocide, oppression of women, the suppression of scientific knowledge and higher education. True faith liberates, false faiths serve to oppress. And this all I can say about that at this point.

[ka3zlr]

No, what GM and the empire's are doing is what needs to be done, and it will be done to other organizations Teacher Union as One example...State unions..if we're gona Socialize Industry, medical etc, there can't be no, any private labor agreements outside the socialized model, now I know that's a Bad word here it's not my idea...

But look down the road 20 years, stop looking at today and your own personal existence, Folks are Screaming for socialized medicine here...medical reform, and with Business competing on a Global scale now the thinking is on a global realm...in house privatized contracting is on the outs Dad...it has nothing to do with third world substrate, why is the thinking "contracting overseas"..to begin with OK...again it's not my idea, but understand it and learn from it and you'll compete much better for jobs..

An the order of the Day is downturn, Blast all ballooned models back...to reality and wake the country up to Change and it's coming Folks..Daily...Wake Up....I don't like it but there it is...

[W3SLK]

Bruce said:

True faith liberates, false faiths serve to oppress. And this all I can say about that at this point.

Quite true on both statements, Bruce.

[WA1GFZ]

very ture Bruce...the prime example Middle East

[WB2YGF]

Folks are Screaming for socialized medicine here...medical reform,

Well, the current system is clearly breaking down.  The people who can most afford it, pay the lowest cost for medical care, and the working people who can least afford it pay the most.

This is because, under the current system:
*  Large companies have the power to negotiate big discounts from the insurer.
*  Large insurers have the power to negotiate big discounts from doctors and hospitals
*  The government has the power to set whatever fee schedule it wants for doctors and hospitals for medicaid, often considerably below actual cost.
*  Small mom & pop companies don't have any negotiating power and their employees often earn lower wages which don't include benefits.
*  The burden of charity care is mostly born by hospitals, with a disproportionate burden in cities.

Where does this leave the low wage or self-employed individual who doesn't qualify for charity?
* He has no power to negotiate the kind of discounts on insurance large companies get.  In fact, IMHO, he is charged EXTRA to compensate for all the discounted corporate insurance.
* He has no power to negotiate a discounted fee schedules from hospitals or doctors.  In fact, the entire shortfall from ALL the discount users and charity users is shifted to the "retail" user. (The $20 asprin syndrome.)
* So if insurance is unaffordable, and medical care is unaffordable, the poor working slob that doesn't get all the discounts or free care, eventually loses his life savings and files for bankruptcy.

A sad state of affairs.

[ka3zlr]

OK, I'll go one more round and then I'm going outside...

Well I'll just be blunt here..I'm lower middle class.. a Cancer patient.. and i drive a truck for a living...I'm a realist, I'm one of those poor slobs that doesn't complain about something i don't have. ( I do Need a Modulation Transformer thought I'd sneek that in here)...Seriously Broke with Kids in college. and we Pay our own medical...

What it means is each of us is in charge of our own life, and responsible for our own actions and bills...Stay in school get an Education, or a better one husstle one ..whatever you have to do because Now we the free have to prove why we our needed at our employer.

Again it's not my Idea, it's what's real, stop blaming others and reaching for things that don't exist, be upbeat man and look for answers.

73
Jack.

[WB2YGF]

 I agree.  Some people can easily afford insurance but because their priorities are messed up, and they think they can get away without having it, they get themselves into trouble. They get what they deserve. 

That said, I don't think everyone can afford medical insurance by simply shifting priorities.

I'm not even assigning blame...it's just the way things have evolved.  I think (hope?) we can do better.

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

How did you know? I'd do a hell of a job too!   

And Walmart.

Steve, I swear that your dream job is to be a greeter...

[WA1GFZ]

If your making $8 an hour good chance you can't afford insurance.

[K1JJ]

Steve, I swear that your dream job is to be a greeter...
How did you know? I'd do a hell of a job too!   

Steve's "Employee of the Month" winning greeting:

"Hello and welcome to Walmart, sir! ... Now hit the frickin road you cheap made-in-China Walfart bastard !!"

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

Or, hey, buy some friggin teeth!

Steve, I swear that your dream job is to be a greeter...
How did you know? I'd do a hell of a job too!   

Steve's "Employee of the Month" winning greeting:

"Hello and welcome to Walmart, sir! ... Now hit the frickin road you cheap made-in-China Walfart bastard !!

[W1UJR]

Or, hey, buy some friggin teeth!

Ok, you brought it up, can't resist....