Microwaves & RF Editor Says Ham Radio Is Alive And Well - WHAT

[Pete, WA2CWA]

From the Microwaves & RF Editor, October 2010:
http://mwrf.com/Articles/ArticleID/23065/23065.html

[K5UJ]

Please.  He listened to the ARRL and drank their Kool Aide.

No one really knows if the no. of hams is growing or not in the U.S.  Statistically the number of licenses issued is growing (maybe) but that has nothing to do with the number of hams unless you want to include SKs for whom the license is waiting to expire, and people like that guy who wrote the letter to the editor of QST back in August, whining because QST was too technical and all he wanted to do was have an HT to use for emcom in his retirement community.  Once you toss out the numbers of inactives, spouses who got a ticket to shut up the ham spouse (I know a few of them) but could not care less about ham radio themselves, emcoms, space shuttle astronauts and others who don't give a flip but had to get a license for a job and so on, and get the number down to real hams i.e. those who are passionate about radio and desire to learn about it and operate regularly, you probably have around 1/10th of the no. of unexpired licenses out there. 

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Please.  He listened to the ARRL and drank their Kool Aide.

No one really knows if the no. of hams is growing or not in the U.S.  Statistically the number of licenses issued is growing (maybe) but that has nothing to do with the number of hams unless you want to include SKs for whom the license is waiting to expire, and people like that guy who wrote the letter to the editor of QST back in August, whining because QST was too technical and all he wanted to do was have an HT to use for emcom in his retirement community.  Once you toss out the numbers of inactives, spouses who got a ticket to shut up the ham spouse (I know a few of them) but could not care less about ham radio themselves, emcoms, space shuttle astronauts and others who don't give a flip but had to get a license for a job and so on, and get the number down to real hams i.e. those who are passionate about radio and desire to learn about it and operate regularly, you probably have around 1/10th of the no. of unexpired licenses out there.  

AH0A pulls his monthly license data from the FCC ULS database. Doesn't come from the ARRL. It clearly shows that the pool of amateurs licensed is growing: http://www.ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html It obviously doesn't show how many are actually active. As far as I know, no one has ever collected and published this statistic over the years. One would also have to define what "passionate about radio", "desire to learn about it", and "operate regularly" means.  I'm not sure how you could even collect that data.
You said: "you probably have around 1/10th of the no. of unexpired licenses out there" Show us the real data.

Back in the 90's, those who held AM close to the heart claimed AM interest and operating was growing. As we proceeded into the 21st century, those who held AM close to the heart, still claimed AM interest and operating was growing. So, as we finish up the first 10 years of the 21st century, where are all these AMers? They obviously don't fit your criteria of "operating regularly". On a typical week of evening listening on 75, I can generally count the number of AM QSOs on one hand. And generally the same people that were there one night, were probably there the night before, and probably will be there the following night. Seems to me, "the AM close to the heart" hams were always applying "smoke and mirror" logic.

[k4kyv]

Now that the manufacturers have been putting AM capability on their ham radio appliances in recent years, probably the majority of hams who work HF have AM capability.  I just called CQ this evening and worked a guy near Toronto who said he had been licensed for many years, but this was his first AM QSO.  He was using a Yaesu FT-1000. But the manufacturers must have decided there was a demand for AM mode, or they wouldn't have driven up the cost of their product to include a  capability that no-one wanted.  This is especially true given that manufacturers of consumer junk are too cheap to even include RFI suppression that would add mere pennies to the cost of each unit.

I would define "passionate about radio" and "desire to learn about it" to mean someone who actually builds or converts their own equipment or else someone who is not afraid to attempt to repair and/or modify their factory-made gear, builds antennas and who has interest in experimenting.  That category would NOT include hams (or should I say HAMs?) who whip out the credit card to buy an appliance and factory-made dipole, and get on the air just to shoot the breeze or play cop, but have zero interest in what is inside their box.

Another category of "paper hams" inflating the FCC data base would include the ham radio cell phone crowd whose licences haven't yet expired, but who use real cell phones now that they have become affordable and ubiquitous, having thrown their handy-talky onto the back shelf of the closet.

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

The number is licenses. That's it. It does not mean the pool is growing, ham radio is growing, etc. Those are all groundless assumptions.

[KF1Z]

According to   http://www.ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

There were 7 new NOVICE class licenses issued this month.

[Pete, WA2CWA]

According to   http://www.ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

There were 7 new NOVICE class licenses issued this month.

Anything above the pink banner are not real numbers until the month passes. Note, the Advanced Class also shows an increase above the pink banner.

[KF1Z]

According to   http://www.ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html

There were 7 new NOVICE class licenses issued this month.

Anything above the pink banner are not real numbers until the month passes. Note, the Advanced Class also shows an increase above the pink banner.

Yes Pete, it says the numbers are UNDERESTIMATED.

However, "above the pink line" aside....
There are other months where the number of Advanced, or Novice licenses increased, long after these licenses were no longer issued.


Seems like simple addition and subtraction does not apply to these "facts".

[K1JJ]

In my opinion, the real measure of whether ham radio is alive and well or is not - is a look at activity on the bands by someone who has lived it for a few decades.

I do a lot of listening, especially on 75 and 40M.  Back in the 70's and 80's, 75M was absolutely packed. There were roving gangs and groups going up and down the band checking into other groups, causing trouble, having fun, etc. It was the wild west.

But now, it's gotten quite sparse on some evenings with the larger groups gone and replaced by smaller groups, one on one or lone wolves calls CQ.  Where has everyone gone? I hear 2M is pretty dead these days, esp repeater activity. Are they on the web?  Of course, the higher bands are quiet due to the sun spots, so the lower bands should be overflowing right now.


There was a time in the 1985-86 area (sunspot minima) when the DX window on 75M (~3780-3800) was so packed with USA stations that the pileups calling one DX station lasted for minutes at a time. It was total bedlam. Now it's sometimes rather slow most of the night with occassional activity.

CW on the low end is pretty quiet unless there is a contest.  Contests are still BIG and so is general DXing on 40M and 20M. It seems that groups and hi-hi FB QSOs  have slowed way down.


Back in the 70's? there was an article in QST where they did a listening survey of the bands and counted actual QSOs at various times, etc. Maybe another one should be done and compared to the past. Though, the size of groups on frequency would not be revealed by simple spectral spotting counts.

All in all, I'd say ham activity is way down compared to decades ago. The number of licenses is a smoke screen. AM activity seems to have seeked and maintained its own level across the country - new entries are balanced out by departures, though its a little quieter than the past. Holding court with an AM "Coast to Coast" seems to bring out the listeners. Many are hesitant to hit the PTT switch unless they know someone well. As old timers show, once their old buddies die off, they stop getting on.

Bottom line? We need to create our OWN lively activity with a good rap. If we can generate interesting activities, they will come out of the woodwork to operate. This will be a way of ham life in the future. Don't expect to sit on the sidelines waiting for action to develop - make your own.

T

[w3jn]

Bottom line? We need to create our OWN lively activity with a good rap. If we can generate interesting activities, they will come out of the woodwork to operate. This will be a way of ham life in the future. Don't expect to sit on the sidelines waiting for action to develop - make your own.

T

100% right, T.  Face it, most QSOs are BORING.  I was inactive for a LONG time until I discovered that there are guys actually having fun on the air - and it seemed to be centered around AM.  What bums me out is you hear all kinds of check ins to these nets - DX-60 net, Might Elmac Net, Collins Net, etc., and NEVER hear most of those guys on the air any other time.  Heavy Metal Rally seems to bring 'em out - why not other times?  Even as short as 5 years ago there were huge breakin groups of guys cutting up and having fun - that's rare anymore.

Here in Europe activity on 80 and 40 is pretty sparse also.  There are roving bands of Russians on the lower part of 80 and some DXers up top towards 3800 but the rest is pretty empty.  Ditto 40.  Sunspots?  Aging of hams?  Who knows, but I'm betting more guys having fun instead of the "Hi Hi Fine Business 73" QSOs would create even more activity.

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Yes Pete, it says the numbers are UNDERESTIMATED.

However, "above the pink line" aside....
There are other months where the number of Advanced, or Novice licenses increased, long after these licenses were no longer issued.

Seems like simple addition and subtraction does not apply to these "facts".

I scanned all the way back to April 2000 (Restructuring began April 15, 2000). Only "number" anomaly I saw for Novice:  August09 was 17290, then September09 went up to 17295, and October09 went down to 17211. A quantity "5" burp in the wrong direction.

Only number anomaly for Advanced: August09 was 61021, then September09 went up to 61041, and October09 went down to 60951. A quantity "20" burp in the wrong direction.

Error could be as simple as someone not putting the numbers in the right columns, summer help transition, just got back from vacation, etc. The anomalies of both are noise as compared to the total number of licenses in the questionable months.

              Novice      Advanced
Oct 09     17211         60951
Sept09     17295         61041
Aug09      17290         61021
Jul09        17338         61069
Jun09       17431         61147

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Here in Europe activity on 80 and 40 is pretty sparse also.  There are roving bands of Russians on the lower part of 80 and some DXers up top towards 3800 but the rest is pretty empty.  Ditto 40.  Sunspots?  Aging of hams?  Who knows, but I'm betting more guys having fun instead of the "Hi Hi Fine Business 73" QSOs would create even more activity.

But mention a contest and they are out there in droves having fun. Contests are keeping all the non WARC bands alive and interesting.

[KF1Z]

I scanned all the way back to April 2000 (Restructuring began April 15, 2000). Only "number" anomaly I saw for Novice:  August09 was 17290, then September09 went up to 17295, and October09 went down to 17211. A quantity "5" burp in the wrong direction.

Only number anomaly for Advanced: August09 was 61021, then September09 went up to 61041, and October09 went down to 60951. A quantity "20" burp in the wrong direction.

Error could be as simple as someone not putting the numbers in the right columns, summer help transition, just got back from vacation, etc. The anomalies of both are noise as compared to the total number of licenses in the questionable months.

              Novice      Advanced
Oct 09     17211         60951
Sept09     17295         61041
Aug09      17290         61021
Jul09        17338         61069
Jun09       17431         61147

Could be that the data is totally bogus, and has no meaning.

[Pete, WA2CWA]

I scanned all the way back to April 2000 (Restructuring began April 15, 2000). Only "number" anomaly I saw for Novice:  August09 was 17290, then September09 went up to 17295, and October09 went down to 17211. A quantity "5" burp in the wrong direction.

Only number anomaly for Advanced: August09 was 61021, then September09 went up to 61041, and October09 went down to 60951. A quantity "20" burp in the wrong direction.

Error could be as simple as someone not putting the numbers in the right columns, summer help transition, just got back from vacation, etc. The anomalies of both are noise as compared to the total number of licenses in the questionable months.

              Novice      Advanced
Oct 09     17211         60951
Sept09     17295         61041
Aug09      17290         61021
Jul09        17338         61069
Jun09       17431         61147

Could be that the data is totally bogus, and has no meaning.

Now you're grasping 

[WA3VJB]

the manufacturers must have decided there was a demand for AM mode, or they wouldn't have driven up the cost of their product to include a  capability that no-one wanted.

In part, you can thank Hank Clark, the late W2IQ for a substantial and successful lobbying effort that changed some attitudes wholesale.

A former Ten Tec executive had vowed never to include AM on the rigs the company produced, until Hank, who had some long-term interaction, persuaded him and other executives that their thinking was wrong-headed.

I have to wonder whether Kenwood was among the competing manufacturers that was influenced by TenTec's rehabilitation.

[Pete, WA2CWA]

A former Ten Tec executive had vowed never to include AM on the rigs the company produced, until Hank, who had some long-term interaction, persuaded him and other executives that their thinking was wrong-headed.

I have to wonder whether Kenwood was among the competing manufacturers that was influenced by TenTec's rehabilitation.

Maybe, especially if they felt they were losing some market share because of the AM omission.  Other then for several of Kenwood's hybrids, TS-520, 820, 830 series and the TS-120, 130, and 180 small modular 12 volt rigs in the 70's and early 80's, most of Kenwood's HF rigs always had AM included in their HF rigs. Actually, even the TS-830 SSB/CW transceiver had a counterpart in the rest of the world called the TS-830M which included the AM mode. It wasn't until some time in the 90's that Ten Tec got on the AM bandwagon and even then they didn't make a big deal of it. Also most, if not all, of the Icom and Yaesu rigs never dropped AM from their rigs even when the naysayers were proclaiming that AM was dead. In most of today's rigs, adding a few lines of software code to some firmware to include AM doesn't really add much significant cost, if any, to the design.

[KF1Z]

Could be that the data is totally bogus, and has no meaning.

Now you're grasping  

I may be grasping, but the FCC data totally disagrees with it too!
Go look for yourself.

The place to get FCC data is where?
Hmmmm  let me think.....  

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

Alive? Interesting? Not for the majority of hams. Even if it were true, a few days a year is not a good defense. This is like defining typical winter WX in Washington, DC on the two 20+ inch snow storms they got last year.

Here in Europe activity on 80 and 40 is pretty sparse also.  There are roving bands of Russians on the lower part of 80 and some DXers up top towards 3800 but the rest is pretty empty.  Ditto 40.  Sunspots?  Aging of hams?  Who knows, but I'm betting more guys having fun instead of the "Hi Hi Fine Business 73" QSOs would create even more activity.

But mention a contest and they are out there in droves having fun. Contests are keeping all the non WARC bands alive and interesting.

[K5UJ]

Tom is right.  ARRL is living in deluded la la land.   Or more likely they know the obvious, but are not about to tell the general public, manufacturers and other prospects and outsiders that ham radio is slowing down.  Yes, anyone who remembers HF in the 70s and before can tell the activity is down on HF, especially CW.   The factors are many and varied; besides what's been mentioned add:  jackass antenna restrictions and lots of hams and ham magazines kowtowing to the antenna police by running articles on how to sneak around and put up what are variously termed "stealth" antennas, or "neighbor friendly" antennas instead of encouraging everyone to stand up to antenna hating tyranny; hash and buzzies from unintentional emitters that cause many hams to give up, fear of using decent antennas and power levels that provide enjoyable operating because of RFI complaints etc., and a lack of basic skills needed to setup a HF station.   

[K5UJ]

P.s. regarding the stealth antenna how-to articles, these typically feature an author who claims to be satisfied with the performance of his loaded gutter antenna, attic dipole, 30 gauge end fed wire, or night-time telescoping 20 foot 160 m. whip, all of which are entirely unacceptable to anyone who has ever used a decent antenna, even if it is just a high center fed dipole, but the wisdom of publishing these articles is not anything ham publishers seem to ever question, and probably won't until some smart lawyers use them as evidence in a case in which a municipality attempts to get all the local hams to dismantle their sky wires and replace them with transformer wire under the eaves of their houses.

I can just picture some lawyer showing a judge one of these articles with a happy ham quoted as saying, "I work everything I hear!"

[Opcom]

I like the freedom that the electronics and radio hobby provides. It is gratifying to be able to have a piece of gear that is either too costly to buy or is not even made.

[Tom WA3KLR]

The September 2010 newsletter of Anatech Electronics, an rf and microwave filter products company, which started the whole flap is now posted on their website.  The article in question is on the left-hand column titled "Our Opinion".  The author states that the number of licensed hams only went up 2% from 1997 to present and he used the word "Declining" in the article title.

Then Jack Browne the Technical Director/writer at Microwaves & RF magazine read the story and regurgitated it in his column.

http://www.anatechelectronics.com/products/large/CMS/Files/September%20Newsletter.htm

I wonder how many people read the Anatech newsletter; has to be only a small handful of people I would think, but in this case, OOPS.

[ke7trp]

For a real shocker,  Go to this website,and look yourself up. You might be surrounded by hams you dont even know.

http://www.vanityhq.com/

Click on HAM locator on the left side.  Enter your zip or address.

I was shocked to learn there are hams all over the hood and  74 in my area.  None of these people have antennas.  When I was at the last testing, there where maybe 15 to 20 people there taking the test.  2 to 3 where excited to be hams like myself. The rest where there because "work" made them take the test.  I wonder why?  Maybe its because intel, microchip and motorola are all in the area.

C