The Sun is not broken

[KA1ZGC]

It may feel like a long time with a totally blank sun, but it's actually not unusual, according to this NASA release:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm

--Thom
Killer Agony One Zipper Got Caught

[WD8BIL]

"The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

Oh come on now..... Historic norms don't mean a thing... this is man's fault... we're causing man made solar minimums ....historic norms my a$$ !.... we gotta start burning ethenol now... before it's too late! 

[Opcom]

but if the sunspots stay inside, won't they go bad and fester and make the sun swell up and pop like a zit?

[Vortex Joe - N3IBX]

For those of us contemplating building, or using 10Meter rigs, let's hope we're not encountering another "Maunder Minimum" of 1645-1715. Seventy-Years is a long time to go without working serious DX.

On a brighter note, there already is some solar activity and openings on 6 and 10 meters.

[AF9J]

Hi Joe,

Those 6 & 10m openings are Sporadic E (I've been having fun on 6 & 10 taking advantage of them).  Sporadic E is really not solar dependent.  It can occur at any time of the year, but typically have a peak of occurrences  in the summer, and a lesser peak in December.  The latest theories suggest that they are that they're related to severe T-storm activity.  Basically a storm not only sends lightning to the ground, and from cloud to cloud, but to a much lesser extent, upward towards the E-Layer.  This ionizes the E-Layer in patches, that allow propogation/skip.  As for the long haul stuff heard lately on 10 & 6 - (I know a few midwest  VHFers, who have worked some JAs, and Europe in the past few weeks on 6m here from the US), that is from multihop Sporadic E.  The more hops that occur, the rarer the incidence (although, double hops between both coasts aren't super rare), but they have been occurring more often this year, than they ususally do.

We won't see any solar dependent propogation on 10 & 6 for some time (unless we have a nice, big solar flare [that gives us Aurora {which is VERY fun to work}, and then settles down to decent high band propogation for a few days afterword]).   In the case of 10m, this means solar flux numbers at least in the 130s.  For 6m, it's much higher - typically over 200 for the solar flux.  At the present time the solar flux is running between 65 & 67.  So, we're nowhere near to having F-layer propogation on 6 & 10m.

73,
Ellen - AF9J

[W3RSW]

yes, Sprites.

-Very ephemeral "discharges" or excitations way into ionosphere above lightning stikes and directly complimentary to the storms below.  They were first seen from orbiters, satellites and space stations.
One of the neatest things discovered in the last several years.

How much we think we know until the latest amazing discovery comes along.

[KA1ZGC]

We won't see any solar dependent propogation on 10 & 6 for some time (unless we have a nice, big solar flare [that gives us Aurora {which is VERY fun to work}, and then settles down to decent high band propogation for a few days afterword]).

Well, yes and no.

Solar flares are one precipitator of aurorae, but not the only one.

Watch the auroral ovals over the next few days. There's a solar wind gust currently on its way to Earth which should strike the planet around the 13th. These solar wind storms tend to last a couple of days. They're the result of Earth-facing coronal holes, which are an independent phenomenon. If the interplanetary magnetic field takes a southern dip, the aurora borealis will intensify (it's always happening, just a question of strength and size). The reverse is also true: if the interplanetary magnetic field tilts northward, aurora australis will intensify. The guys and gals in the Antarctic research stations have been getting some real groovy light shows this summer even when the interplanetary magnetic field was comparitively neutral.

We're not likely to see any visible aurorae in the US for several years, but it can still happen with a fairly heavy solar wind gust and a sharp southward tilt of the interplanetary magnetic field, even with zero sunspots.

Solar flares are more like nitrous oxide: they don't make the engine run, they make the engine go from running to screaming.

As far as propagation goes: there's always some band open to somewhere.

--Thom
Keep Away One Zorched Ground Conductor

[AF9J]

Very true Thom.

I forgot about the Auroral zones and the coronal holes.  My mistake.   The last Aurora I worked, was in Dec. 2006.  That was fun.  It's always cool making a CW contact to North Carolina from Wisconsin, on 2m.  It was a Friday, and I got out of work late (so it was already dark outside).  I commmute 26 miles from work to home.  I could see a glow off to the north.  I purposely took the back roads home, so I could get away from light pollution.  The Aurora was a beautiful greenish color.   They're always eerie, and beautiful to watch.   

73,
Ellen - AF9J

[AF9J]

Hi Mark,

Yeah, that's another one of the theories for Sporadic E formation.  Nobody's really 100% sure what causes it.   But yeah, it looks like from reading, that wind shear is in vogue at the present time for Sporadic E formation:

http://home.swbell.net/pjdyer/cq/cq7208a.htm


But, the T-storm theory is still alive at this time (back in the 90s when I was addicted to VHF & UHF weak signal operating, this was the theory in vogue) :

http://www.amfmdx.net/propagation/Es.html#mechanisms

http://www.df5ai.net/Material/articles.html#ArticlesThunderstorms

Also, don't forget that special form of Sporadic E known as Auroral E.  That occurs when the Auroral jet becomes so intense, that it seriously ionizes the surrounding e-layer. I've never worked it, but I've read of people saying that when Auroral E kicks in, all of a sudden the buzzy/hissy CW signals, and the gargly voice signals become clear as a bell, and serious DX becomes possible, oftentimes with signals at 20 and 40 over 9.  It mainly occurs on 10 & 6m.  Good stuff.

73,
Ellen - AF9J

[Pete, WA2CWA]

"Sporadic E known as Auroral E"

A number of years ago, I believe in March, sometime between 12 and 1 AM, 6 was noisy and void of signals (not that I expected lots of activity at that time). Antenna was pointed north/northwest and I was running 100 watts. Called CQ and was answered by an Alaskan station. Quickly exchanged particulars and then went QRZ. Another call from an Alaska station. Particulars exchanged, etc. QRZ, called by another Alaska station. This went on for 5 different Alaska stations. Signals varied from S-6 to S-9+.  First station had some aurora flutter but the other four were clear and solid. Total time about 10 minutes and then the band went dead and nothing but noise. There was also a very good aurora opening the preceding day in the late afternoon and into the evening.