If you've noticed on the left side of our screen, there is a solar "X" Class Flare going on.
VALID BEGINNING AT: 00:00 UTC ON 14 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (5 pm EDT) ON 15 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 14 DECEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 14 - 15 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 70, 30, 15 (13 - 16 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12-24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD TO VERY GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO COLORADO TO KANSAS TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO TENNESSEE TO NORTH CAROLINA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
FRANCE TO NORTHERN ITALY TO AUSTRIA TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A powerful and well-directed solar flare from active solar Region 930 was observed early on 13 December. This event has the potential to produce periods of moderate to strong (possibly even intense) auroral storm activity on 14 December, possibly lingering into 15 December. The most intense phase of activity is likely to occur some hours after the initial impact, which is currently expected near 07:00 UTC on 14 December (2 am EST on 14 December). The moon will begin to impinge on observations after it rises sometime after local midnight, so the best observations (if possible) will occur prior to and near local midnight when the moon is still below the horizon.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (5 pm EST) on 15 December.
This should also provide some very good 6 meter aurora activity if you're into this kind of cool stuff. Probably won't help HF activity.
