The AM Forum

:gib:
For those who like to know these things  and want to plan:

Propagation Bulletin 16-I-2005 0430 UTC
At the time of this bulletin, we've just witnessed another long-duration  
flare.  This is the strongest of the flares so far unleashed by active  
sunspot region 720 (NOAA 10720).  This flare was a major X2.6-class event  
that peaked at 2302 UTC 15-I-2005.  A Type II radio burst was detected,  
and a proton event is currently underway, as well.
 
A very fast coronal mass ejection was associated with this X2.6 flare.  It  
looks like the majority of the plasma mass will just miss the Earth, yet  
we expect at least a glancing blow.  We expect this to occur sometime on  
17 or 18 January 2005, riding on the heels of the CME from the M-class  
long-duration flare from earlier (refer to my last bulletin).  This will  
cause the geomagnetic storm to be prolonged.  The storm will begin at any  
time in the next 24 hours, and last well past 17 January 2005.  We expect  
minor storm levels on 16 January, severe storm levels on 17 and 18 January.
 
The solar activity has significantly risen as a result of the active solar  
regions.  The 10.7-cm Flux has reach 145, and is expected to increase to  
perhaps 150 by 17 and 18 January 2005.  This has opened up paths on  
frequencies as high as 10 meters.
 
This translates to disrupted HF conditions caused by shortwave fadeouts  
for the next three days due to active solar region 720 (and possibly from  
flares from 718).  When the CME clouds arrive and impact our environment  
we expect the Maximum Usable Frequencies on most signal paths to become  
very depressed in coming days.  HF communication may become very difficult  
if this active solar region continues to flare, while at the same time we  
have the storm conditions in the geomagnetic field around the Earth.
 
Look for active visual Aurora starting tonight and through the next few  
days (even in mid- to low-latitude regions).  Energetic pulses will  
occur.  Aurora-E / Aurora-mode propagation is likely.

Thanks Pete....good working you b4 the band went belly-up


73 Brent W1IA

By the way, propagation on 75 meters is superb, a lot of stations are mixed up from all directions there, just the constant noise...

Yes Brent, great working you too with good signals all around.

Just poked around (12:30 EST) 10M between 29.0 and 29.07 and heard several AM QSO's. Looks like 10 is coming alive.
(http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapNst.gif)