Yup Cycle 24 is done

[KA3VID]

Or not ?   http://propnet.org/catch3.php?band=HY&last=1&call=&center=US

  Just sayin'

[W2VW]

Seems like predictions are not so easy : )

Good thing all the guys heard/worked on 10 meter AM don't know about the death of ionospheric propagation.

The divide between internet radio quarterbacks and real radio has increased dramatically IMO.

As a challenge I may just buy a wire antenna and see if I can still make contacts. It will have a cool name like Bazooka.

If not I'll just stay safe on the WWW critiquing people's posts on radio sites. 

Gotta go. There's another signal............

[W1ITT]

 The great American philosopher Lawrence Berra, occasionally known as "Yogi" said it best...
... "Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Or not ?   http://propnet.org/catch3.php?band=HY&last=1&call=&center=US

  Just sayin'

There are a number of types of propagation that don't rely on sunspot activities. Sporadic E and trans-equatorial are common. On the 10 meters, the 2K to 3K mile contacts are easy. Show me the consistent 9K, 11K, 13K mile contacts. 10 meters, like most other HF bands, is active 24 hours a day somewhere in the world almost every day.

[Steve - K4HX]

Deju vu all over again and it ain't over until the fat lady sings.

Today's SFI is 157 and the SN 193. Not dead for sure. Just worked a bunch of JAs on slopbucket.

[W2VW]

On the 10 meters, the 2K to 3K mile contacts are easy. Show me the consistent 9K, 11K, 13K mile contacts. 10 meters, like most other HF bands, is active 24 hours a day somewhere in the world almost every day.

VK4VN is still QRV on 29000 around dinner time. Worked him a couple days ago. He reported hearing me when I was using 18 watts.

I have a modest station consisting of mostly recycled equipment. Only the solder is new. 

Been away from the radio but heard K1KW reporting working VK4VN recently. Seems consistent to me.

[Steve - K4HX]

From the most recent ARRL prop bulletin:

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers for the January 22-28 period rose from
61.9 on the previous seven days to 89.1. Average daily solar flux
rose from 126.2 to 136.8 over the same period.

There were two new sunspot regions on January 22, another one on
January 23 and again on January 25, four more on January 26, another
two on January 28 and one more on January 29.


Sunspot numbers for January 22 through 28 were 63, 70, 57, 65, 110,
119, and 140, with a mean of 89.1. 10.7 cm flux was 120.3, 121.1,
125.3, 126.6, 147, 158.1, and 159.3, with a mean of 136.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 12, 9, 7, 6, 16, 12, and 7, with a mean of
9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 8, 5, 3, 12, 9, and 5,
with a mean of 7.3.

[KX5JT]

So are we in Cycle 25 now?

[Pete, WA2CWA]

So are we in Cycle 25 now?

We're on the down slope of Cycle 24 but it all depends on where you put your measuring points.

From Sky and Telescope:
"90 sunspots as a peak value near August 2012. Instead, the peak sunspot number seems to be less than 70, and the maximum arrived later than expected. Cycle 24 should have peaked in 2012, 11 years after its last minimum in 2001, but the Sun overslept by a full year, waking up in 2013 instead. Cycle 25, expected to peak in 2024, will be the weakest yet."

You obviously don't need lots of sunspot activity to make world-wide contacts. Users of CW, SSB, and digital modes do it every day. However, if you're on AM, running low power to a 20 foot high dipole, or something equivalent, it's a lot harder to do when the sun's activity is not in your favor.

[KX5JT]

I realize it's a "cycle" but to say it's done implies we are into the next cycle.  I think we are just barely coming off the peak.  It's my opinion that there's still a lot of cycle 24 left although the days of 10 meters open for 12 hours a day (F2 skip) are probably farther and fewer between.

[Steve - K4HX]

The new cycle doesn't start until the sun's magnetic field reverses. That usually occurs near the low point of sunspot/SFI activity. So, yes, there is likely several years left to Cycle 24. The last few years of the cycle will not produce propagation anything like we have now on the upper HF bands. Use it while ya got it!

[Pete, WA2CWA]

I realize it's a "cycle" but to say it's done implies we are into the next cycle.  I think we are just barely coming off the peak.  It's my opinion that there's still a lot of cycle 24 left although the days of 10 meters open for 12 hours a day (F2 skip) are probably farther and fewer between.

I agree John. The initial subject title is misleading. If you believe the people who do the daily sun measurements and massage the numbers over some period of time, the peak of Cycle 24 occurred in 2013. The downward slope of the cycle from maximum to minimum generally is longer and smoother then the upward swing. And, as you said, the 10 meters will be open to world-wide contacts for some time to come. What has changed from say two or three years ago to today is the absence of many of the AM'ers both domestically  and internationally who were heard and worked back then. Could be the conditions, or maybe the "novelty" of working stations AM to AM has wore off. Two or three years ago, I could fill a log book page in one weekend with AM activity on 10 meters. Now I'm lucky to get maybe a half-dozen stations in one weekend on 10 meter AM. Even the 15 meter AM activity seems to have dropped considerably over the last several months.

[KA3VID]

The initial subject title is misleading. If you believe the people who do the daily sun measurements and massage the numbers over some period of time, the peak of Cycle 24 occurred in 2013. The downward slope of the cycle from maximum to minimum generally is longer and smoother then the upward swing.

I agree . My point was that someone posted a few threads ago that the peak of
cycle 24 has passed and I was only saying that may be true but you can still operate and make DX contacts.Hell you can be buzzardly about it too.

[Pete, WA2CWA]

The initial subject title is misleading. If you believe the people who do the daily sun measurements and massage the numbers over some period of time, the peak of Cycle 24 occurred in 2013. The downward slope of the cycle from maximum to minimum generally is longer and smoother then the upward swing.

I agree . My point was that someone posted a few threads ago that the peak of
cycle 24 has passed and I was only saying that may be true but you can still operate and make DX contacts.Hell you can be buzzardly about it too.

If you review the smooth sunspot numbers, the "peak" has pasted. However, if you look at some past cycles, including the previous one, sometimes there are, although generally less exciting, secondary upswings on the down cycle.

As far as DX, you can work DX even during sunspot minimums. Obviously, SSB and CW modes have the definite advantage during less exciting sunspot activities, but since the interest here is mainly AM and AM mode activity, working DX down in the lower portion of the band on SSB or CW has less, at least for me, interest and wow brain function.

[Steve - K4HX]

It has passed too.