Warning: Creating default object from empty value in /homepages/11/d132647312/htdocs/Amfone/mkportal/include/SMF/smf_out.php on line 47
FUEL $$$ WTF




 
The AM Forum
December 04, 2021, 01:44:23 AM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
 
   Home   Help Calendar Links Staff List Gallery Login Register  
Pages: 1 [2] 3 ... 8   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: FUEL $$$ WTF  (Read 87980 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
WA1GFZ
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 11152



« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2011, 04:28:23 PM »

I see zero value in it. The guy with the best intel makes the buck and everyone else pays more.
Logged
K1JJ
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 8541


"Let's go kayaking, Tommy!" - Yaz


« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2011, 04:34:46 PM »

I see zero value in it. The guy with the best intel makes the buck and everyone else pays more.

Why is this any diffferent than when buying stocks, houses, bonds and all other commodities?  The guy with the best intel usually does better, but not always. No one can accurately predict the future and usually makes big mistakes like everyone else.

There is no conspiracy. Most have no clue what the future holds, even the best financial pros or they would soon have all the money in the whirl... Wink

T
Logged

Use an "AM Courtesy Filter" to limit transmit audio bandwidth  +-4.5 KHz, +-6.0 KHz or +-8.0 KHz when needed. 

Nothing like a new homebrew rig. Come into the shack, flip on the switches and everything works perfectly.

And, nothing like an old dog.
Ed/KB1HYS
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1853



« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2011, 04:49:25 PM »

Though very important, oil is just another major commodity. Right now the price of most commodities is approaching or greatly exceeding historic highs.   Soybeans, Wheat, Corn, Cocoa, Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Cotton, Lumber, Hogs, Cattle, (Beef) Sugar and others have made new historic highs, some never seen before.  

No one has complained about the price of beef or cotton yet, but they are both about doubled from last year. Even coffee is approaching old 1970's highs.
<SNIP>

You will notice that most food stuffs and other consumer goods have not changed in price on the market shelves.  But if you go and buy a '1-lb' can of coffee for example, you are only getting 12 ozs.  The manufactures realized that as long as the packaging looks the same and the price remains close, they can cut the quantity in a package.  This makes it look like the price has not increased when in fact it has. You are just paying the same amount you're used to and getting 12 oz instead of 16.  

The only things that they can't do this with are things sold by large unit volume, like a gallon of milk or gas for example.  They can shrink a loaf of bread, or the amount of cereal in a box, or penut butter in a jar, as those quantities are subjective (how full is full? -or- Product is sold by weight, not volume, some settling of contents may occur). Then leave the price the same as it was for original quantity per unit. Net result you are paying more with out noticing or complaining or maybe even not buying that product anymore.

As long as they keep the incremental increase below some threshold, the average consumer will not notice.
Logged

73 de Ed/KB1HYS
Happiness is Hot Tubes, Cold 807's, and warm room filling AM Sound.
 "I've spent three quarters of my life trying to figure out how to do a $50 job for $.50, the rest I spent trying to come up with the $0.50" - D. Gingery
Steve - K4HX
Guest
« Reply #28 on: April 12, 2011, 04:52:28 PM »

Because Frank isn't making money on it. If he were, he wouldn't be posting here.  Wink

All this whining boils down to some people being pissed that someone else is making money and they aren't. It might as well be kindergarten - Johnny is upset that Billy got a cookie in his lunch and Johnny didn't.

Sheesh.
Logged
WA1GFZ
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 11152



« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2011, 04:58:31 PM »

I don't file metal off coins either guess I'm just a sucker
Logged
K1JJ
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 8541


"Let's go kayaking, Tommy!" - Yaz


« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2011, 05:34:59 PM »

Oh, I just love a lively debate.

The missing point about speculators -    Statistically, over 95% !! of all futures traders (speculators) lose all their money over time. They blow out and in comes another group of young bucks to try their luck. Musical chairs. It just like the casino in odds. Why would it be any different in the futures markets?  The consistent winners are the commercial users and producers. The speculators are betting against these guys. No chance. The smart hedgers don't care if the price goes up or down cuz they are hedging their inventory. They hedge at the price they can make money with the product and go back to work.

BTW, what did the average speculator do on this recent huge oil price rise? They SHORTED the market expecting a crash. They lost while the producers were long and buying. These position reporting stats are available to everyone. Of course some speculators made money. Just like the casino, maybe 5% of them.

Over 300 years there have been countless govt investigations into this commodity speculator area. We have blown $billions for studies. The end result, with an exception of perhaps two cases I recall, is that there was no wrong-doing and the markets ran as they should have. The exceptions are when there is illegal manipulation as when the Hunts tried to corner silver. They paid the price in $billions in losses anyway. Then there was the copper mine fiasco back in the 80's. They too lost $billions in the end.

The biggest investigation resulted in the 1933 Securities Act as everyone knows. The '29 crash caused a huge witch hunt and the govt wrote themselves some new rules that last today. But nowhere are speculators written out - even the '29 crash couldn't find reason to eliminate them.

Bottom line is - who is making the money in the commodity price spikes? It's the producers who have kept their expenses at a reasonable level. As always, the OPEC guys, and major oil companies are doing well. The surrounding riff-raff speculators are trying on a wing and prayer to ride their coattails but are failing miserably, as always..  Wink   And of course brokerage firms take their cut through commissions. This is a drain from the speculator too.

BTW, Ed/HYS - You are right about food packaging. What a clever way to hide higher prices. The local Chinese restaurant has started it too. The aluminum trays are much smaller these days. I noticed it last week.   Steve, we better watch out at the shushi bar in 2 weeks…  
Logged

Use an "AM Courtesy Filter" to limit transmit audio bandwidth  +-4.5 KHz, +-6.0 KHz or +-8.0 KHz when needed. 

Nothing like a new homebrew rig. Come into the shack, flip on the switches and everything works perfectly.

And, nothing like an old dog.
KB2WIG
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 4420



« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2011, 05:38:21 PM »

" The manufactures realized that as long as the packaging looks the same and the price remains close, they can cut the quantity in a package "

The local food mart sells Dunklin Donuze Coffee in 12 oz bags.... for the same price that Dunklin sells their 16 oz bag.  I love this country.  I buy 8 'O Clock coffee, and grind it myself. Its cheeeper than the Dunklin, and my house smells like the A&P.


klc
Logged

What? Me worry?
W1RKW
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 4280



« Reply #32 on: April 12, 2011, 06:05:59 PM »

bottom line is everything is dependent on energy.  Energy will dictate the cost of everything.
Logged

Bob
W1RKW
Home of GORT. A buddy of mine named the 813 rig GORT.
His fear was when I turned it on for the first time life on earth would come to a stand still.
W7TFO
WTF-OVER in 7 land Dennis
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 2364


IN A TRIODE NO ONE CAN HEAR YOU SCREEN


WWW
« Reply #33 on: April 12, 2011, 06:29:16 PM »

Ah yes, energy.  To carry on the hijacking tradition;

My neighbor used to live in Northern Ohio.  Built a boiler with an eye on 'cheap to run' that would take whole pallets as fuel. 

He later tried it with old tires, and after tweaking the blowers a bit, got it to burn them with just a bit of white smoke & not enough to get any attention.  Now his son lives in that home and heats the whole house & hot tub in Winter with free "items".

Reportedly can recycle the left-over steel cords for a few $.

Green enough?

73DG

Logged

Just pacing the Farady cage...
K5UJ
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 2845



WWW
« Reply #34 on: April 12, 2011, 06:35:40 PM »

Oh, I just love a lively debate.

I do too, especially when they are funny  Grin  At the risk of being hated, I don't do any cross country travelling now so I can kind of ride out the price--but the cost of going a distance to a hamfest, or to get a big rig will hurt.

The exceptions are when there is illegal manipulation as when the Hunts tried to corner silver.


Unfortunately for me, the only market I dream of cornering is mod. reactors, maybe KW vintage bc rigs. 
Logged

"Not taking crap or giving it is a pretty good lifestyle."--Frank
Ed/KB1HYS
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1853



« Reply #35 on: April 12, 2011, 06:38:42 PM »

bottom line is everything is dependent on energy.  Energy will dictate the cost of everything.


So true, especially with the decentralization of our culture and the globalization (ok, outsourcing) of manufacturing.   Gone are the days when the stuff you bought here was made here (locally or even in this country).  Initially Rail transport opened up opportunities to ship products nationally, but that was killed by trucking since trucking could go door-to-door and at that time fuel costs for trucks were so cheap that the cost of maintaining and running rails made them non-competitive.  So producers could locate factories (or farms) further away from population centers they served and get goods directly to the market via truck and do it more cheaply and faster than rails, although with a much greater fuel burn per ton of goods moved. No big deal if fuel is cheap.

Now products, and especially food stuffs, must be shipped great distances to the point of use, and trucks are not the most cost efficient way to do that when fuel costs "by necessity, skyrocket".
The Rail system, which at one time moved massive quantities of people and materials has languished, and a great deal of which has been abandoned or lost so there is no low cost fall back to trucking or airfreight.  Even 'rail trail' preservation projects are a joke, first, the cost of recovering the roads would be prohibitive, I think the last estimate to upgrade the existing 18 miles of track from Nashua to Lowell to connect to the Boston MBTA rail was about a million a mile, imagine scratch building a complete road, not to mention the fights from the groups who wanted the trails for their recreational use in the first place.
Finally, automobiles and their associated marketing all-but made ownership of a car in the US a necessity, which caused our population centers to spread. It was no longer necessary to live and work in the same community, you were only limited by how far you were willing to drive, as long as the fuel costs were cheap enough, which they were for 50 or so years. Now hour long commutes are not uncommon, and Mass Transit is a joke since it's just not possible for it to go all the places it needs to go, and even if it does, it takes far too long. I could take a bus from my house to work, but it would take me over 2 hrs one way and it's only 6.5 miles!

So the farmer has to pay more for his fertilizer, insecticides, and for the diesel to run his tractors, the grocer has to pay more to get that product since the shipping costs have to increase in response, then factor in the whole taxation thing. All those costs get passed on until we're paying $10 for a loaf of bread.
Logged

73 de Ed/KB1HYS
Happiness is Hot Tubes, Cold 807's, and warm room filling AM Sound.
 "I've spent three quarters of my life trying to figure out how to do a $50 job for $.50, the rest I spent trying to come up with the $0.50" - D. Gingery
KL7OF
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 2215



« Reply #36 on: April 12, 2011, 08:35:53 PM »

Do not bring logic into this discussion. That will never do!   Grin

Why do I not hear anyone complain about speculators when the prices drop? Is the system only broken when prices go up?


When have prices dropped?
Logged
K1DEU
Guest
« Reply #37 on: April 12, 2011, 08:43:02 PM »

 I believe that the most important resource / commodity now and especially moving forward is and will be Water. Not Salt or Poluted or bromaic suflide, etc.  For clean healthy food is slightly more important than long distance transportation.

  Our Main resource of Energy will depend on clean Water even directly. Notice what heavy water is.  73, Dr. John K1DEU
Logged
Steve - K4HX
Guest
« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2011, 09:18:53 PM »

In 2008 the average price of gas was $1.79. It's now over $3.60. Before 2008 it was higher than $1.79 at some times and other times lower. The price of gas goes up and DOWN often. See the graph below.

Source

http://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_history.html



Do not bring logic into this discussion. That will never do!   Grin

Why do I not hear anyone complain about speculators when the prices drop? Is the system only broken when prices go up?


When have prices dropped?


* zFacts-Gasoline-Price.png (5.7 KB, 537x390 - viewed 701 times.)
Logged
k4kyv
Contributing Member
Don
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 10062



« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2011, 09:34:44 PM »


Finally, automobiles and their associated marketing all-but made ownership of a car in the US a necessity...

Yet, they tell us that car ownership and driving are a "privilege not a right".

The automobile and associated bureaucracy have become a convenient instrument of social control.
Logged

Don, K4KYV                                       AMI#5
Licensed since 1959 and not happy to be back on AM...    Never got off AM in the first place.

- - -
This message was typed using the DVORAK keyboard layout.
http://www.mwbrooks.com/dvorak
w3jn
Johnny Novice
Administrator
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 4605



« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2011, 11:03:35 PM »

Oh, I just love a lively debate.

The missing point about speculators -    Statistically, over 95% !! of all futures traders (speculators) lose all their money over time. They blow out and in comes another group of young bucks to try their luck. Musical chairs. It just like the casino in odds. Why would it be any different in the futures markets?  The consistent winners are the commercial users and producers. The speculators are betting against these guys. No chance. The smart hedgers don't care if the price goes up or down cuz they are hedging their inventory. They hedge at the price they can make money with the product and go back to work.

BTW, what did the average speculator do on this recent huge oil price rise? They SHORTED the market expecting a crash. They lost while the producers were long and buying. These position reporting stats are available to everyone. Of course some speculators made money. Just like the casino, maybe 5% of them.



So, as spoken by one who intimately knows this market, the speculators are actually SUBSIDIZING oil prices  Wink

The $9.50/gal here is mostly taxes - pure government interference in the market in an attempt to help finance its socialist society; also, there are only 2 refineries here as I understand so it's also probably a lack of competition.  Finally oil is priced in dollars and this is a euro economy.  The price always goes up (in euros) when the dollar falls.  Then since I get paid in dollars and have to exchange to euros, I get doubly screwed.

In response, cars are mostly smaller yet there are still plenty of gigantor Mercedes, big Citroens (which I must admit are REALLY cool cars), tons of Jeep SUVs, and a smattering of Suburbans, Escalades, and Hummers as well as some exotics like Aston Martins, etc.   The taxes based upon engine size are another burden the Greeks shoulder, if they want anything better than a tiny little crapbox.

Even so, it's cheaper for me to drive to work than ride the bus.  The metro doesn't go close to my place.  And it's a crap shoot whether either the buses or the metro will be on strike on any given day.  My little Caddy gets 30 MPG on the highway and about 20 commuting.

I recently rode the Washington DC metro - frigging $5.40 from Shady Grove to Washington National Airport!  Last time I rode it regularly it was $2.40.  No wonder people prefer to drive.
Logged

FCC:  "The record is devoid of a demonstrated nexus between Morse code proficiency and on-the-air conduct."
flintstone mop
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 5033


« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2011, 06:23:20 AM »

Ah yes, energy.  To carry on the hijacking tradition;

My neighbor used to live in Northern Ohio.  Built a boiler with an eye on 'cheap to run' that would take whole pallets as fuel. 

He later tried it with old tires, and after tweaking the blowers a bit, got it to burn them with just a bit of white smoke & not enough to get any attention.  Now his son lives in that home and heats the whole house & hot tub in Winter with free "items".

Reportedly can recycle the left-over steel cords for a few $.

Green enough?

73DG


UN-fortunately there does not seem to be any innovators. Folks want the energy saving device handed to them  and installed for free, and then probably no use it.
Logged

Fred KC4MOP
flintstone mop
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 5033


« Reply #42 on: April 13, 2011, 06:36:29 AM »

Here's a twist. The following is not OFFICIAL.
My brother works for a heating oil/gasoline/diesel delivery company near Washington DC. Somewhere in this thread someone mentioned that he/she saw receipts for gasoline delivery to their local gas station and could not detect any increases in the last several months.
My brother tells me that his company, IS seeing increases and it's the exact opposite of what we are thinking here. There is LESS consumption of these fuels, so the price of oil goes up.
It doesn't seem to be the poor shmoe at your local gas and go making big dollars.
Logged

Fred KC4MOP
WA1GFZ
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 11152



« Reply #43 on: April 13, 2011, 09:41:11 AM »

The whole point of the stock market was to raise cash for big projects and everyone made a buck in the end. Ever since the small investor was let into the market the volume took off. The excessive volume has produced an undercurrent of prople moving stock at a high volume to produce gains over short periods of time perverting the spirit of the market. Now every business in the market must react to daily buzz rather than long term goals.
Wait till that big computer system comes on line in the basement of wall st.
Someone is giong to suck money out like a blood sucking bug on a humid August day.
Logged
KC2ZFA
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 407



« Reply #44 on: April 13, 2011, 10:13:55 AM »

Why is this any diffferent than when buying stocks, houses, bonds and all other commodities?  The guy with the best intel usually does better, but not always. No one can accurately predict the future and usually makes big mistakes like everyone else.

There is no conspiracy. Most have no clue what the future holds, even the best financial pros or they would soon have all the money in the whirl... Wink

T

except in the oil "market" the producer is the only entity that really knows how proven are the so-called "proven reserves." Not even the majors know how proven their "proven reserves" are...just look up how often they restate them (downwards). So there's no way for "market forces" to operate in oil until the time the Saudis allow for the independent evaluation of how much longer they can pump at rate X, Y, or Z, etc.

Peter
Logged
KC2ZFA
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 407



« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2011, 10:30:21 AM »

Now, according to the Congressional Research Service the major oil companies paid $2.2T in revenue for the same period.

according to your link, most of this $2.2T is not taxes on oil industry profits but rather it is federal and state excise taxes which are "pass on" taxes...oil companies pay little, to none (plenty stories recently about Exxon's tax liability), tax on profits by exploiting the tax loopholes put into law by the politicians they own while they pocket the subsidies awarded them by the same politicians they own.

While it's easy to count the direct subsidies, it is hard to count the indirect subsidies.
For example, the recent cancellation of a new rail tunnel in the NY-NJ metro area is
an indirect subsidy to the oil industry since the population pressures on the existing system will certainly result in more gasoline consumed in longer and longer traffic jams into and out of NYC.
Logged
WD8BIL
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 4362


« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2011, 10:57:34 AM »

Quote
$2.2T is not taxes on oil industry profits

In the end ALL the Taxes are paid by the consumer. And in the end all the money ends up in gobment hands. Where the 2.2T came from is less relavent to where it ends up. And I doubt very much, but will look into it, that the indirect subsides total anywheres near the total tax revenue.
Logged
WD8BIL
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 4362


« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2011, 11:02:36 AM »

Quote
except in the oil "market" the producer is the only entity that really knows how proven are the so-called "proven reserves." Not even the majors know how proven their "proven reserves" are...just look up how often they restate them (downwards). So there's no way for "market forces" to operate in oil until the time the Saudis allow for the independent evaluation of how much longer they can pump at rate X, Y, or Z, etc.


The real problem on the supply side, at least for the U.S., hangs on the fact that our domestic oil producing market died after the 1980 tax increases. Ifn we had let the market run free and not given into the junk science of Climate Control our dependencies wouldn't be lying off shore.
Logged
K1JJ
Contributing
Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 8541


"Let's go kayaking, Tommy!" - Yaz


« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2011, 11:41:46 AM »

Quote
except in the oil "market" the producer is the only entity that really knows how proven are the so-called "proven reserves." Not even the majors know how proven their "proven reserves" are...just look up how often they restate them (downwards). So there's no way for "market forces" to operate in oil until the time the Saudis allow for the independent evaluation of how much longer they can pump at rate X, Y, or Z, etc.

Peter
 

Good point. This makes it even HARDER for the speculator to skim profits off the move. The average speculator is a doctor who gets a tip from his commodity broker. It goes something like, "Oil is high enough - let's short it here for a big fall. OPEC can't possibly let it rally any more or the USA will get POed" , etc etc. (Crap info = losses) They put in a stop loss order $4000 away from the market and get clipped in one day.

 Johnny/JN -  I never thought of it that way, but you are right. The small speculator probably does help subsidize the oil industry in the form of better price spreads for the big boys to get in and out.... Interesting thought.

T
 
Logged

Use an "AM Courtesy Filter" to limit transmit audio bandwidth  +-4.5 KHz, +-6.0 KHz or +-8.0 KHz when needed. 

Nothing like a new homebrew rig. Come into the shack, flip on the switches and everything works perfectly.

And, nothing like an old dog.
k4kyv
Contributing Member
Don
Member

Offline Offline

Posts: 10062



« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2011, 12:52:02 PM »

Finally oil is priced in dollars and this is a euro economy.  The price always goes up (in euros) when the dollar falls.  Then since I get paid in dollars and have to exchange to euros, I get doubly screwed.

Why is that?  If the dollar falls (loses buying power), the price in $$$ goes up.  But there would be a respective shift in the euro to dollar exchange rate, with the stronger euro now buying more of those devalued dollarettes. So shouldn't the price at the pump stay about the same in the Eurozone, unless the euro also loses value?  The euro is not bound to the $$$ at a fixed rate; the relative values of the currencies is allowed to float. Like the stock market and copper commodities, the exchange rate fluctuates on a daily, even hourly basis.

The last time I was in Europe right after euro had just been introduced, the countries were still using the old currency but everything was dually priced, marked in local currency and in euros. This allowed an acclimation period before the new money was released to the public.  At that time the euro was worth about $1.03, close enough to the dollar that US tourists could approximate the prices of items in the store by the euro price, without mentally calculating per the exchange rate. At that time the Canadian dollar was worth about $0.80 USD; now it is $1.04. According to this morning's newspaper, the exchange rate is 0.6904 euros for $1, or $1.4485 for 1.00€. The buying power of the USD relative to other currencies has taken a big plunge over the past decade.

So why does the daily variation in exchange rate not take care the higher price per barrel in dollars when paid in euros?
If the price in both euros and dollars increases, but only the dollar and not the euro loses value per the official exchange rate, doesn't that mean the price at the pump in real money has gone up as someone is taking advantage and skimming from the till? Or am I missing something here?
Logged

Don, K4KYV                                       AMI#5
Licensed since 1959 and not happy to be back on AM...    Never got off AM in the first place.

- - -
This message was typed using the DVORAK keyboard layout.
http://www.mwbrooks.com/dvorak
Pages: 1 [2] 3 ... 8   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

AMfone - Dedicated to Amplitude Modulation on the Amateur Radio Bands
 AMfone © 2001-2015
Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Page created in 0.166 seconds with 18 queries.