Geezer Acts for the Super Bowl

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

Anyone remember the 1970s: double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and double-digit interest rates? The Superbowls were played then. Hell, they played the World Series every year through out the Great Depression. We just spent 400 million on a presidential inauguration. Life goes on.

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

Hey, you are the future of ham radio. Anyone who shoots you down because of some silly Morse Code test is stuck in the past, not to mention just plain stupid. And yes, there are tons of hams like this, so upon reflection, your word game is more on the mark than I first thought. Good one!

Wasn't really intended to be funny. I was trying to show how a statement like that can be changed ever so slightly and be applied to anything. As far as hams stuck in the 60's, there's nowhere to begin. Being a low class 5wpm loser ham with a license only 5 years old, I've had my fair share of geezers shoot me down off the air solely based on the fact that I wasn't born in 1930. This is my reason for coming to AM in the first place as it's a better class of operators and most everyone is always arms open instead of gates closed. That wasn't intended to be a personal dig, not by any means.

J

If that actually made sense, it might be funny. Who is trying to relive the 1960's?

little bitta word play.

No, just not some washed up has been. There's nothing more pathetic than an over the hill ham trying to relive the 1960's. Sad. And then to put it along side the youth of todays new CB ham's makes it seem even more ridiculous. If these guys were to operate at some nursing home, then OK, it makes sense.

You geezers have fun watching. None of the crap for me.


 

It's almost funny, but sad, how so many things in this life are easily interchanged.

[KB2WIG]

Can you say "sterilize yourself"

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1996452407910943036

I wonder....   70,000 watts/ 746 (bird watts) = 93.8 (Bird) horsepower....

Them thar enjens must be reel eficient to powar all them pills hammer doun

[W1ATR]

Thanks. For me, I have a pretty thick skin, so the old timers never really get to me. There's such a wealth if info to be had, that I make it a practice to keep the peace and listen. Until I find a decent lot somewhere on a hill to slap a house on, I'm stuck in the upper bands on this postage stamp I live on anyway. (Only get to operate 80 once and a while and forget 160, maybe if I knocked down some of the neighbors houses and replaced them with wire, haha.)

Hey, you are the future of ham radio. Anyone who shoots you down because of some silly Morse Code test is stuck in the past, not to mention just plain stupid. And yes, there are tons of hams like this, so upon reflection, your word game is more on the mark than I first thought. Good one!

Wasn't really intended to be funny. I was trying to show how a statement like that can be changed ever so slightly and be applied to anything. As far as hams stuck in the 60's, there's nowhere to begin. Being a low class 5wpm loser ham with a license only 5 years old, I've had my fair share of geezers shoot me down off the air solely based on the fact that I wasn't born in 1930. This is my reason for coming to AM in the first place as it's a better class of operators and most everyone is always arms open instead of gates closed. That wasn't intended to be a personal dig, not by any means.

J

If that actually made sense, it might be funny. Who is trying to relive the 1960's?

little bitta word play.

No, just not some washed up has been. There's nothing more pathetic than an over the hill ham trying to relive the 1960's. Sad. And then to put it along side the youth of todays new CB ham's makes it seem even more ridiculous. If these guys were to operate at some nursing home, then OK, it makes sense.

You geezers have fun watching. None of the crap for me.


 

It's almost funny, but sad, how so many things in this life are easily interchanged.

[W1ATR]

Now don't forget your CB math now. A bird watt times the root of the human watt divided by the quantity of alternators, plus the content of said ingested alcohol equal approx 2.46 watts. So in other words, a 100hW (human watts) pill is totally capable of 246bW..

Can you say "sterilize yourself"

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1996452407910943036

I wonder....   70,000 watts/ 746 (bird watts) = 93.8 (Bird) horsepower....

Them thar enjens must be reel eficient to powar all them pills hammer doun

[K1JJ]

Anyone remember the 1970s: double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, and double-digit interest rates? The Superbowls were played then. Hell, they played the World Series every year through out the Great Depression. We just spent 400 million on a presidential inauguration. Life goes on.

Yep, good point, Steve -  the World Series was played through the Great Depression. 

The world  needs SOMEBODY to lead the way and fight a good fight when the global economic adversity gets tough. Might as well be the USA.   It's something like the guys carrying the bagpipes in the front lines, leading their Scotish brothers into battle.... :-)

Lets all hope for the best. Keep a close eye on the stock market for clues when we are about to turn up again. The stock indices have historically been the best leading indicator of economic direction for 6 months into the future. Though, right now, they continue to say we still have some rough sledding ahead.

BTW, I was thinking the other day - I'm concerned  how the ARRL will make out over the next few years.  I'll bet their corporate portfolio (which was heavily weighted in stocks the last time I looked in 2003) is getting beat up.  Think I'll  take a close look at their next corporate report when it comes out.  Many not-for-profits are having a tough time or are biting the dust these days.


T

[WA1GFZ]

Socialism? could that be where the last $5T went....don't think so.

[WB2YGF]

I have to figure out how to QUOTE posts........sorry

Fred - hit the quote button in the upper right hand corner of the post you wish to quote and it will quote the post automatically.

If you want to quote a paragraph from an article, simply enclose in "quote"   "/quote"  with []'s around quote and /quote

[K1JJ]

The latest/greatest turn in that direction is TARP & the currently debated "STIMULUS".  They may turn out to be one way roads to the graveyard.

Yep. Historically, (this includes many bear markets over 200 years) there has never been a period when the USA was able to buy its way out of a major economic downturn. It has always run its course - it just takes time.

Many contend that stimulus packages make the situation even worse and delay the recovery.  Maybe it will be different this time.... :-)  Hope so.

T

[W8EJO]

The latest/greatest turn in that direction is TARP & the currently debated "STIMULUS".  They may turn out to be one way roads to the graveyard.

Yep. Historically, (this includes many bear markets over 200 years) there has never been a period when the USA was able to buy its way out of a major economic downturn. It has always run its course - it just takes time. T

Agreed!

I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me the mechanism by which the gov't. action of taking (by force) a $1.00 from citizen A , deducting a $.20 handling charge & handing the remaining $.80 to citizen B "stimulates" the economy (other than the cheap liquor segment of course).


 

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Lets all hope for the best. Keep a close eye on the stock market for clues when we are about to turn up again. The stock indices have historically been the best leading indicator of economic direction for 6 months into the future. Though, right now, they continue to say we still have some rough sledding ahead.

Yep! All the indicators seem to point to a long rough road ahead.

BTW, I was thinking the other day - I'm concerned  how the ARRL will make out over the next few years.  I'll bet their corporate portfolio (which was heavily weighted in stocks the last time I looked in 2003) is getting beat up.  Think I'll  take a close look at their next corporate report when it comes out.  Many not-for-profits are having a tough time or are biting the dust these days.

T

Look at the items below from the ARRL Director's meeting in January 2009. I would suspect that will be a number a belt-tightening expense objectives embedded within a number of these items for 2009 and beyond. The complete 2008 Annual Report, with all the financial information, generally is published some time in June.

"10. Mr. McCobb updated the Board on the status of ARRL investments with emphasis on the strategies and reasoning behind how he executes his job as Treasurer. In common with the rest of the world, the ARRL’s portfolio lost value during the year.

13. Mr. Shelley expanded on the written report of the Chief Financial Officer adding that from his point of view the year was a good one for ARRL, with revenues meeting overall expectations except for voluntary contributions. He then gave a presentation explaining IRS’s updated Form 990, which is essentially a new form with new rules for reporting for non-profit organizations.

23. Mr. Fenstermaker expanded upon the written report of the Administration and Finance Committee. After discussion, on motion of Mr. Fenstermaker, seconded by Mr. Frahm, the Board VOTED at 9:25 AM to meet as a Committee of the Whole to discuss personnel matters, with only non-staff officers, Directors, Mr. Sumner and Mr. Shelley present. At 11:12 AM, the Committee of the Whole arose and reported to the Board. On motion of Mr. Bellows, seconded by Mr. Edgar it was VOTED to accept the report.

          24. On motion of Mr. Fenstermaker, seconded by Mr. Bellows, it was VOTED that the 2009-2010 Plan, as amended and presented by the Administration and Finance Committee be adopted.

          25. On motion of Mr. Bodson, seconded by Mr. Mileshosky, it was VOTED that the Whistleblower policy as recommended by the Administration and Finance Committee be adopted.

          26. On motion of Dr. Weaver, seconded by Mr. Bellows, it was VOTED that the following resolution be adopted:

    In accordance with the recommendation of the Administration and Finance Committee regarding the establishment of a 403(b) pension plan for the staff of the ARRL,

    BE IT RESOLVED that ARRL is authorized to take any necessary actions to implement the company’s 403(b) Plan, (herein referred to as the “Plan”).

    BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that ARRL accepts the appointment of Reliance Trust Company as Custodian for the Plan, the appointment of The Standard as the Plan’s recordkeeper, and authorizes the creation of a written plan document.

    BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that The Standard, the Plan’s recordkeeper, shall be authorized to deliver all instructions from ARRL relating to Plan contributions, investments and distributions to Reliance Trust Company, and The Standard shall be fully protected in relying on such instructions.

    BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the following individuals will be authorized to act on behalf of ARRL: David Sumner, Chief Executive Officer; and Barry J. Shelley, Chief Financial Officer.

            27. On motion of Mr. Mileshosky, seconded by Mr. Bellows, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves a capital expenditure of $134,500, as recommended by the Administration and Finance Committee for Phase III of the project to complete the new ARRL web site.

          28. On motion of Mr. Fenstermaker, seconded by Dr. Weaver, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves the implementation of a brokerage account at Credit Suisse Securities for the purpose of trading securities for the ARRL portfolio."

[k4kyv]

The  last economic stimulus package that got us out of the Great Depression was WW2.

At the end of that war the US federal debt was well above the total GDP, something over 120%.

After the war, the debt stayed about the same through about 1970, while the GDP steadily climbed, until the debt only amounted to about a third of GDP.

Starting in about 1970 the gross debt began a  steep uphill climb, partially as a result of inflation as the dollar evolved into the dollarette, and partially the result of increases in real spending, following the VietNam war, in which we tried to have guns and butter at the same time, without calling on the public to make WW2 type sacrifices.

The increase in gross debt rose at a steady rate until 2000, hovering in the vicinity of 65% of GDP.

Starting in 2000, the gross national debt rose sharply, but so did the GDP, keeping the debt at about 65% GDP.

At present the gross national debt as a percentage of GDP is about half what it was immediately following WW2.

Since the gross debt and GNP are both on the order of tens of trillion $$, the current one trillion or so combined bail-out and stimulus extravaganza are unlikely to have any more effect than the New Deal, which helped some people a little, but it took the war to stimulate us out of the depression.

Will it take another major war to get us out of the present-day mess, and would it be physically possible for it to do so?  Could the  planet's resources support the kind of growth in gross worldwide product that occurred during and immediately after WW2?  Could the infrastructure in the US support doubling the GDP in a short period of time?  And could we stand the human costs of a major war?

http://www.swivel.com/

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

Good info. History is important. Some would argue that WWII didn't necessarily help the economy. Rather the economy had taken its lumps and was ready to turn around. The war coincided and probably sped things up drastically. Where the war really helped was after it was over. Our economy was cranked up and the rest of the world was pretty much destroyed. We lived off that fat situation for a few decades. By the 70's it caught up to us and we've been in a downward spiral since. So, long term, the war was bad.

Another thing to note from that time was that the so called crash happened in 1929. The New Deal started in 1932. Yet things were just as bad in 1938 as they were in 1932. And the economy didn't come around until the early 40's. That's over ten years. We all want to think our current problem(s) will be over in a few years. Hopefully, but it could easily be a decade. Don't be fooled by all the hand waving and stimulus packages.

[K1JJ]

The  last economic stimulus package that got us out of the Great Depression was WW2.

*Note: After I posted, I see Steve already beat me to the punch... :-)


Don,

I'd agree with your complete post except for the interpretation of the statement above.

The 1929 depression EFFECTS really went on into 1938, though the stock market bottomed in July, 1932, if I remember cvorrectly.  The economy was ready to rally and recover sharply by the time WWII  started. It would have anyway, war or no war. The 1930's debt liquidation had run its course and it was time.

It's my opinion that wars do nothing to add REAL value to the economy. They just destroy, kill good men and build bombs, missles and useless stuff that adds nothing to the infrastructure, services or benefits. Very short lived.  It makes jobs, but that's about all.  Might as well throw dollars out of a helicopter to the people instead.

The only reason the USA did well during WWII is because the destruction did not take place on our own land. Look at Germany and Japan to get an idea of what war does to a country's economy.  The same holds true for WWI to some extent.

Just think of what Germany may have become if not for Hiltler starting WWII. It may have gone on to lead Europe in economic strength.

But, alas, you are correct - during economic recessions, depressions, downturns, etc, wars are frequent and start easily. This is because of the negative social mood, protectionism, grab for much needed resources, land and assets.  Social unrest gets very bad too. Based on history, we can very well expect a major world war within the next 10 years. Unfortunately.

BTW, the major ecomomic cycle we just completed went from 1932 to 2000. The rally from 2003 -2008 was the credit/fiat/sucker rally before the big decline and liquidation.  It is now running its normal course and is not even 1/2 way thru yet. (just opinion, of course)

Good post, OM.

T

[k4kyv]

It's my opinion that wars do nothing to add REAL value to the economy. They just destroy, kill good men and build bombs, missles and useless stuff that adds nothing to the infrastructure, services or benefits. Very short lived.  It makes jobs, but that's about all.  Might as well throw dollars out of a helicopter to the people instead.

That's true.  Hope no-one inferred from those stats that I was saying the War was a good thing.

It is still being debated what were the causes of WW1.

[Steve - WB3HUZ]

I recommend the book below on WW I or the Great War as it was called then. There are, of course, many others, but this is the best one I've read lately.

http://www.amazon.com/First-World-War-John-Keegan/dp/0375700455

[K1JJ]

Thanks much for the info, Pete. You saved me some looking. I'll check out the ARRL report when it comes out in June.

These minutes stood out to me:


"10. Mr. McCobb updated the Board on the status of ARRL investments with emphasis on the strategies and reasoning behind how he executes his job as Treasurer. In common with the rest of the world, the ARRL’s portfolio lost value during the year."


Yep, makes sense - their portfolio was loaded up with stocks and mutual funds in 2003 after taking a -30% hit. It recovered from 2003-2007, but has since probably broken back below the -30%+ loss. At the time we had agreed their market speculative exposure was way too high for a company with NET assets of about $2 million.  I had feared for their pension plan too.



 "27. On motion of Mr. Mileshosky, seconded by Mr. Bellows, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves a capital expenditure of $134,500, as recommended by the Administration and Finance Committee for Phase III of the project to complete the new ARRL web site."

$134K just to FINISH their website?  Where's all the talented ham internet/website volunteers who could pull this off for them?  I'll bet a request for a team of volunteers (who would get lots of publicity for themselves) could be recruited easily thru their media drives.


          "28. On motion of Mr. Fenstermaker, seconded by Dr. Weaver, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves the implementation of a brokerage account at Credit Suisse Securities for the purpose of trading securities for the ARRL portfolio."

Hmmm...  they haven't learned. Sounds like they're trying to make it all back quickly by trading the market. Bad idea for their situation. Classic emotional choice. I've always wanted to sit down and find out what that financial officer's been smoking over the last eight years... :-)

T

[W8EJO]

It's my opinion that wars do nothing to add REAL value to the economy.
T

To your larger point there is no debate. That argument was settled with Bastiat's "broken window fallacy". (BTW, The Law, Bastiat's excellent book is available gratis here:
http://www.fee.org/pdf/books/The_Law.pdf

However, by removing real threats to our property and well being, war can and has
(at least until the next threat arises) provided the environment necessary for economic productivity and wealth building (e.g. pax Americana 1946 - present).

Looming threats to one's life & property tend to destroy the  climate for economic growth.

[K1JJ]

However, by removing real threats to our property and well being, war can and has
(at least until the next threat arises) provided the environment necessary for economic productivity and wealth building (e.g. pax Americana 1946 - present).
Looming threats to one's life & property tend to destroy the  climate for economic growth.

Yep, some wars ARE necessary as a last resort as well as standing military deterrents.

I just wanted to make clear that to start (or participate in) a war solely to pull oneself out of a depression is lunacy and does not work long term - contrary to popular thinking of what transpired because of the coincidental timing of the USA's 1930's depression and WWII.

I believe that the USA was destined for this tremendous economic cycle from 1932 - 2000 despite any wars or threats. In fact, I believe that if it wasn't for WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and the constant build up of arms against the USSR for decades, we would now be so far ahead today it would be mind boggling. Probably had the money to be on Mars with a colony, a cure for cancer, independently energy rich, electric cars, Autobahn-type roads everywhere, etc. Those military $Trillions could have gone a long way.  ... :-)

T

[Pete, WA2CWA]

Thanks much for the info, Pete. You saved me some looking. I'll check out the ARRL report when it comes out in June.

These minutes stood out to me:

"27. On motion of Mr. Mileshosky, seconded by Mr. Bellows, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves a capital expenditure of $134,500, as recommended by the Administration and Finance Committee for Phase III of the project to complete the new ARRL web site."

$134K just to FINISH their website?  Where's all the talented ham internet/website volunteers who could pull this off for them?  I'll bet a request for a team of volunteers (who would get lots of publicity for themselves) could be recruited easily thru their media drives.

Volunteer work might have worked if started that way but not midway through. I would suspect web developers have their own unique way of doing things and picking up this job (free no less) midway probably would not attracted a lot interest or motivation. Volunteer work generally would imply, "when I have the time after I do all the other tasks that people really pay me to do".

"28. On motion of Mr. Fenstermaker, seconded by Dr. Weaver, it was VOTED that the ARRL Board of Directors approves the implementation of a brokerage account at Credit Suisse Securities for the purpose of trading securities for the ARRL portfolio."

Hmmm...  they haven't learned. Sounds like they're trying to make it all back quickly by trading the market. Bad idea for their situation. Classic emotional choice. I've always wanted to sit down and find out what that financial officer's been smoking over the last eight years...  :-)

T

It probably wouldn't be in your best interest to learn what he might be smoking over the last eight years 

[k4kyv]

Yep, some wars ARE necessary as a last resort as well as standing military deterrents.

But we have thrived on having an "enemy" for many decades.  It started with WW2 after we drove the final nails in the coffins of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

As soon as the War was over and those enemies were defeated, immediately and almost without pause we had a new enemy - communism.  That kept the Cold War going for 45 years, and in the interval, two "hot" wars, with trillions of $$$ into the military-industrial complex.  After communism collapsed as the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union imploded around 1990, we wandered aimlessly for over decade without a definitive enemy, just a few brush fires south of the border and radical Islam snapping at our heels.  Small stuff.  Then came the events of 11SE01; we now have our enemy once again, so it's back to business as usual, so far for the better part of a decade.

[Bill, KD0HG]

It's my opinion that wars do nothing to add REAL value to the economy. They just destroy, kill good men and build bombs, missles and useless stuff that adds nothing to the infrastructure, services or benefits. Very short lived.  It makes jobs, but that's about all.  Might as well throw dollars out of a helicopter to the people instead.

I'm starting to feel that way myself. You spend half a million on a bomb, that's it. You might as well burn the thousand dollar bills.

You spend that half mil mil on infrastructure, roads, civic improvements like the WPA did, or maybe vehicles, and all those items have a long-term stimulating effect. You need road pavers, heavy equipment, even vehicle mechanics. It's the losers that have to pay after one drops that bomb.

Supposedly.

[K1JJ]

I'm starting to feel that way myself. You spend half a million on a bomb, that's it. You might as well burn the thousand dollar bills.

You spend that half mil mil on infrastructure, roads, civic improvements like the WPA did, or maybe vehicles, and all those items have a long-term stimulating effect. You need road pavers, heavy equipment, even vehicle mechanics. It's the losers that have to pay after one drops that bomb.

Supposedly.

Very well put, Bill.

Remember the song from the 70's?  War... good gawd man, what is it good for? Absolutely Nothing! (say it again)   :-)
BTW, our CT governer has today started the CCC work program as in the 30's. People w/o jobs will be working on parks, trails, dams and other woody stuff like in the past. What's the saying?  "What's old is new again?"


Don,

Yes, we HAVE thrived on war. What a poor focus of our time, energy and resources. Look what it did to the USSR. Look what it's eventually done to us. We have rusting military hardware, most in the scrap yard, and we're still renewing the debt and paying interest on it today. It's called "perpetual debt," unlike debt that is retired by being paid off from real income and return on investment from use.

It's interesting that the world has become real good at multiplying and killing  people. Real efficient.

I think 2008 marked the end of an era and the beginning of a new one that will last for at least 40 years. Maybe the new enemy has taken the form of financial. Something tells me that man will somehow find a way to weave war into that as well.

It's too bad that over the last 60 years we didn't have world leaders who could keep the peace and cooperate. Can you imagine if we had a real, "Day the Earth Stood Still" event back in 1932 and we maintained peace?  I think today would be like something out of the Jetsons, technology-wise.... at least very very different than today. Even though we spent $trillions on military technology research, we neglected other areas that would have improved the quality of our lives.

Another historical fact:  There has never been an American president relected during a major bear market. Jimmy Carter is a perfect example.  This bodes poorly for Obama. I like Obama more than any other modern day prez. However, if history repeats and the bear mkt continues, he will go out very unpopular and lose the next election. That is so hard to believe right now... hope this time is different.

T

[Bill, KD0HG]

Tom, give me a long CQ around 3700, + or -.

-bk 9 PM ET

[k4kyv]

Bill, I heard you calling CQ on 3687 or thereabouts.  But I was tuned up higher in the band.  By the time I went down to the tower, retuned the antenna and got back you were gone.  I gave you a couple of calls but no reply.

Then about 5 minutes later I was tuning around and heard a bunch of pissweak slopbuckets, pissing 'n moaning for at least 10 more minutes, highly upset because you happened to call CQ on "their" frequency.