The AM Forum

I keep a close eye on the Connecticut River levels throughout the year for sailing and flood curiosity.  It hasn't happened yet, but this very accurate prediction service is showing the very beginning of the great 2010-11 snow season melt.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=box&gage=hfdc3&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6

In the summer, the river measured level is as low as minus one foot. It averages about 2'-3' high.  During the spring flood season or hurricanes it can hit 37'.  Flood watch is at 12' and flood stage is at 16'.   The next two days shows a new spring breakout at 8'.  Just wait until the northern New England states warm up.

My own guess is we will hit 27' this spring causing some serious flood levels if we get unusual rain storms or really warm WX for rapid melt. Historically the spring thaw floods usually crest in late March or early April.  

Check it once every few days to see it all happen in slow motion over the next month or so.

T


HISTORY of CT River at HARTFORD, CT:

Flood Categories (in feet)
Major Flood Stage: 28
Moderate Flood Stage: 24
Flood Stage: 16
Action Stage: 12

Historical Crests
(1) 37.60 ft on 03/21/1936
(2) 35.40 ft on 09/23/1938
(3) 30.74 ft on 06/01/1984
(4) 30.60 ft on 08/20/1955
(5) 29.30 ft on 05/01/1854
(6) 29.00 ft on 12/10/1927
(7) 28.20 ft on 04/21/1862
(8) 27.60 ft on 04/07/1960
(9) 26.70 ft on 03/29/1843
(10) 26.40 ft on 04/09/1901
Show More Historical Crests

Low Water Records
(1) -1.46 ft on 08/12/1974
(2) -1.05 ft on 11/02/1908
 

What is the Elevation at your place?    Any danger to your property ?

Naw, just a spectator, Steve. We're at 805' elv and the CT River is about 10 miles away at 50' elv.


sigh....

I have the fondest memories of last summer in August sailing down the smaller Farmington River into its mouth at the CT River. The CT River was at about 0.9' that day, the lowest of the year. Yaz and I were able to walk across the CT River because of the mouth silt build up. I walked the sailboat with a rope along the various sandbars. Not a person in sight.  Beautiful day.   We got back in and sailed almost to Htfd. The water plants moved underwater like hula girls.  The various islands had signs of the ravages of spring floods with huge trees busted up and scattered everywhere. What a contrast to that serene day.

You can tell I'm ready for spring.

T

As shown, if it hits 27' this year, it will be quite an event way out of the bell curve in over 300 years of record keeping..


Historical Crests for Connecticut River at Hartford

(1) 37.60 ft on 03/21/1936
(2) 35.40 ft on 09/23/1938
(3) 30.74 ft on 06/01/1984
(4) 30.60 ft on 08/20/1955
(5) 29.30 ft on 05/01/1854
(6) 29.00 ft on 12/10/1927
(7) 28.20 ft on 04/21/1862
(8) 27.60 ft on 04/07/1960
(9) 26.70 ft on 03/29/1843
(10) 26.40 ft on 04/09/1901
(11) 26.30 ft on 03/29/1913
(12) 26.20 ft on 04/23/1869
(13) 26.00 ft on 04/21/1933
(14) 26.00 ft on 03/03/1896
(15) 25.90 ft on 03/20/1859
(16) 25.80 ft on 10/06/1869
(17) 25.60 ft on 04/08/1987
(18) 25.52 ft on 01/02/1949
(19) 25.50 ft on 03/04/1902
(20) 25.50 ft on 07/01/1683
(21) 25.20 ft on 04/16/1895
(22) 25.00 ft on 03/29/1953
(23) 24.70 ft on 04/17/1909
(24) 24.52 ft on 03/24/1948
(25) 24.50 ft on 04/14/1922
(26) 24.30 ft on 03/20/1865
(27) 24.00 ft on 04/02/1905
(28) 23.60 ft on 05/06/1940
(29) 23.50 ft on 05/06/1893
(30) 23.40 ft on 01/09/1874
(31) 23.38 ft on 04/18/2007
(32) 23.30 ft on 03/25/1903
(33) 23.19 ft on 04/24/1969
(34) 23.10 ft on 04/14/1934
(35) 23.04 ft on 03/16/1977
(36) 22.80 ft on 08/22/1856
(37) 22.80 ft on 04/22/1900
(38) 22.60 ft on 04/24/1852
(39) 22.50 ft on 03/30/1920
(40) 22.47 ft on 04/04/1976
(41) 22.40 ft on 05/29/1877
(42) 22.20 ft on 06/04/1952
(43) 22.10 ft on 04/25/1958
(44) 22.10 ft on 05/02/1956
(45) 22.06 ft on 04/02/1951
(46) 22.04 ft on 04/05/2005
(47) 22.00 ft on 04/13/1887
(48) 22.00 ft on 04/08/1923
(49) 21.90 ft on 04/23/1914
(50) 21.80 ft on 04/25/1939
(51) 21.70 ft on 04/20/1863
(52) 21.64 ft on 04/02/1998
(53) 21.57 ft on 03/08/1979
(54) 21.56 ft on 02/27/1981
(55) 21.56 ft on 04/18/1996
(56) 21.50 ft on 03/25/1968
(57) 21.50 ft on 05/06/1850
(58) 21.50 ft on 04/16/1876
(59) 21.50 ft on 04/27/1899
(60) 21.40 ft on 04/30/1904
(61) 21.38 ft on 07/03/1973
(62) 21.35 ft on 12/23/1973
(63) 21.30 ft on 05/04/1886
(64) 21.29 ft on 04/01/2010
(65) 21.20 ft on 04/10/1912
(66) 21.10 ft on 03/28/1884
(67) 21.10 ft on 05/17/1937
(68) 21.00 ft on 12/17/1983
(69) 21.00 ft on 04/22/1855
(70) 21.00 ft on 04/17/1861
(71) 21.00 ft on 05/01/1879
(72) 21.00 ft on 03/19/1868
(73) 20.99 ft on 04/22/1982
(74) 20.94 ft on 04/14/1993
(75) 20.90 ft on 03/23/1945
(76) 20.90 ft on 10/10/2005
(77) 20.90 ft on 05/14/1996
(78) 20.80 ft on 04/27/1926
(79) 20.80 ft on 04/03/1916
(80) 20.72 ft on 10/17/2005
(81) 20.70 ft on 01/29/1996
(82) 20.70 ft on 03/22/1898
(83) 20.70 ft on 04/13/1873
(84) 20.70 ft on 04/25/1847
(85) 20.70 ft on 04/06/1959
(86) 20.70 ft on 01/12/1935
(87) 20.70 ft on 04/08/1924
(88) 20.56 ft on 05/06/1972
(89) 20.50 ft on 04/13/1872
(90) 20.50 ft on 04/03/1962
(91) 20.50 ft on 04/14/1932
(92) 20.50 ft on 03/31/1925
(93) 20.40 ft on 10/27/2005
(94) 20.30 ft on 11/09/1907
(95) 20.30 ft on 04/14/1947
(96) 20.30 ft on 02/26/1866
(97) 20.30 ft on 07/16/1897
(98) 20.20 ft on 04/29/2001
(99) 20.20 ft on 01/23/1910
(100) 20.10 ft on 04/18/1906
(101) 20.01 ft on 04/03/2004
(102) 20.00 ft on 04/15/1883
(103) 19.95 ft on 10/31/2003
(104) 19.90 ft on 03/12/1921
(105) 19.80 ft on 03/30/1919
(106) 19.72 ft on 10/22/1975
(107) 19.50 ft on 04/18/1867
(108) 19.42 ft on 03/25/2010
(109) 19.30 ft on 04/17/1891
(110) 19.30 ft on 04/05/1963
(111) 19.20 ft on 01/11/1998
(112) 19.14 ft on 04/01/2003
(113) 19.06 ft on 04/12/1980
(114) 19.00 ft on 02/21/1857
(115) 19.00 ft on 12/25/1843
(116) 18.96 ft on 04/02/1986
(117) 18.95 ft on 04/15/2008
(118) 18.94 ft on 12/14/2008
(119) 18.90 ft on 04/08/1888
(120) 18.90 ft on 03/25/1929
(121) 18.88 ft on 04/07/1950
(122) 18.87 ft on 03/11/2008
(123) 18.80 ft on 04/20/1954
(124) 18.80 ft on 04/04/1918
(125) 18.76 ft on 05/08/1989
(126) 18.60 ft on 12/04/1996
(127) 18.60 ft on 03/26/1944
(128) 18.60 ft on 04/10/1928
(129) 18.50 ft on 02/25/1845
(130) 18.50 ft on 04/17/1964
(131) 18.50 ft on 02/18/1908
(132) 18.44 ft on 04/05/1967
(133) 18.30 ft on 03/16/1846
(134) 18.30 ft on 04/27/1970
(135) 18.30 ft on 03/30/1917
(136) 18.28 ft on 05/06/1971
(137) 18.20 ft on 04/10/1997
(138) 18.20 ft on 05/07/1871
(139) 18.20 ft on 04/06/1875
(140) 18.00 ft on 04/30/1878
(141) 18.00 ft on 03/11/1946
(142) 17.90 ft on 04/30/1943
(143) 17.90 ft on 04/13/1931
(144) 17.86 ft on 04/07/1974
(145) 17.84 ft on 05/22/2006
(146) 17.80 ft on 01/16/1892
(147) 17.80 ft on 04/25/1961
(148) 17.70 ft on 10/28/1857
(149) 17.51 ft on 04/26/2005
(150) 17.50 ft on 04/24/1885
(151) 17.40 ft on 03/24/1999
(152) 17.36 ft on 05/02/2008
(153) 17.30 ft on 06/18/1998
(154) 17.20 ft on 09/19/1999
(155) 17.16 ft on 09/18/1999
(156) 17.13 ft on 05/16/2006
(157) 17.10 ft on 04/21/1997
(158) 17.00 ft on 11/11/1848
(159) 16.90 ft on 03/12/1998
(160) 16.79 ft on 04/06/2000
(161) 16.78 ft on 04/06/2009
(162) 16.70 ft on 04/29/1864
(163) 16.70 ft on 04/27/1992
(164) 16.61 ft on 05/01/1988
(165) 16.60 ft on 12/23/1957
(166) 16.55 ft on 01/11/1978
(167) 16.54 ft on 04/22/2008
(168) 16.50 ft on 08/06/1915
(169) 16.30 ft on 12/20/2003
(170) 16.00 ft on 04/26/1881
(171) 16.00 ft on 10/20/1911
(172) 15.90 ft on 11/15/1995
(173) 15.50 ft on 01/17/1848
(174) 15.50 ft on 05/29/1853
(175) 15.50 ft on 03/03/1860
(176) 15.10 ft on 11/30/1889
(177) 14.90 ft on 04/07/1880
(178) 14.30 ft on 05/03/1882
(179) 14.00 ft on 01/01/1851
(180) 13.30 ft on 04/25/1894

Hope it does not flood the people close by it. It always seems the farmers and regular Joe Six kind of people get hit the worst.

In the fishing circles around here the fear is a poor spring run from heavy runoff pushing the migratory fish like striped bass and atlantic salmon.  The state stocks the rivers and streams too and there's talk of postponing the trout stocking.  Salmon River should be wild.

Wow... look at it now - they are predicting 16', flood stage!  It's still at 4' and the surge starts in a couple of hours.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=box&gage=hfdc3&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6


Bob, interesting on the water "pushing" the desired fish back. Never thought about that.

The shad run in spring has always been a hot pursuit around here.

T

I think too that all the smaller bait fish can't get up the rivers and streams so the larger fish stay back and they get pushed as well.

It looks as if the surge is greater in Hartford compared to Springfield.  Guess there's more contributing south of Springfield to Hartfords surge.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=box&gage=spgm3&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1"

Should be interesting in Middletown.

When it rains, it pours. Somewhere.

We're running a 4.25" deficit already for the year, severe drought in a big swath of the state and into SC and VA. We could get up to an inch today from the current wave of storms, but feel free to pipe some down if it gets in the way.  ;D

i am too tall to wear pumps  ::)

Why is it that tornadoes seem to mostly strike mobile homes?

It just seems that way.  Tons of rich people get nailed by hurricanes. Who else can afford sea front property?

Stream in the woods looks pretty tame today. We melted about 6 inches of snow since yesterday. The heavy rain is supposed to hit tonight. Most of the snow is gone from the roof.

The stream that runs behind  the RKW QTH is about 2 ft above normal right now.  No trout seen yet. Not sure if I should break out the fly rod or the kayak. Last March was a kayaker's heaven, white water galor.  It should be interesting in the next day or too with a few inches of rain predicted. Hopefully the backyard (leach field) won't be beach front property.

The streams around here are running full. The surrounding ground is swamped with water. There is heavy fog everywhere from snow melt.  I wonder if we will start seeing bare ground after this next rain storm?

There is a chance of an ice storm farther north.

I just get the feeling we will see record flooding in the CT River this year.   Funny, just now I heard the talking heads on TV freaking out about coming flooding.  Shud be the next media story.

You heard it here first!   ;D

T

The worst of it came through here a couple hours ago. We got some wind and rain, one good clap of thunder. As the line passed east several tornadoes spun up, one apparently touched down on the Main street in Rolesville maybe 15-20 miles away. Didn't sound like anything massive, but it's still hairy out there. Wind is a-whippin' and temps are dropping. Should hit up in Steve's locale over the next couple hours.

Rained like h#$% earlier. Cranking up again.

Yah, people along the CT river start to get very uneasy when the water starts edging over the banks. I live about 500 feet from the Farmington River, which feeds into the CT river, and it's rising quickly. Fortunately, the homes here are several hundred feet above the river, so it's not a worry for my area. My inbox has started pinging with "flood watch" and "flood warning" notices though!

My lawn began to show up today Tom for the first time in many months!

Probably no flooding here, although the James River at Richmond will get close.

Well, you're under a tornado watch now, depending how well it holds together you may end up with a warning being issued. That bow echo in the shot you posted looks to either be falling apart or forming up.

Apparently another tornado in over in Wilson flung some farm equipment around. Hopefully it won't wreak havoc with your trees and aerials. 

The lawn appeared around the maple tree in the front yard this afternoon. We still have about a foot of snow on most of the yard.
The best thing I did last fall was to cover the basement bulkhead door with heavy plastic. Water is rolling off it and  the plastic is under the ice on the ground. So far so good and it is really coming down. Most years the ice dams up and water backs up. We then get a bit of water under the door.

Hmmm... Now they're showing a 20' crest, past flood stage for tmw at 2PM.  It's already at 12' now.  That river will be truckin!  Might take a ride down there tmw afternoon.

How's the Farmington River doing at your place Rob?

T

I could still see the drain from RT159 going over the river this morning.
It isn't that high yet. The stream behind the house was at least 2 feet deep this morning so it is cooking. 

with the snow cover the ground is soft.  Permafrost layer is only an inch or 2 here.  The snow has acted like insulation.  When clearing the roof last month I staked my ladder and had no problem penetrating the ground to get the stakes in. I thought I'd have the beat the heck out of the stakes and hammer to get the stakes in the ground.  They slipped in like a hot knife in soft butter.  With all the rain and melt the ground is extremely soft.  The winds we had the other night, I thought for sure some trees would be uprooted.  They toughed it out though. The brook behind the QTH never overflowed.

Yaz and I took a ride down to the CT River today at about 3PM.  That was within a few hours of the peak at 19.4'.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=box&gage=hfdc3&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6

It was quite an experience. The river looked swollen. The current was strapping. The normal mud banks are about 20' high in the summer. Today the water was within inches of overflowing these natural boundaries. In other areas the flood plains were being used and the river was at least 1 mile wide in some places.

There was lots of debris flowing; ice, logs, plastic bottles, KW-1's... it was like a floatilla. The water was moving at about 8 mph. There is no way a person could paddle a boat upstream in that.

I put a stake marking the water line when I arrived and noticed it had creeped higher when I left.

We walked by our favorite sandbar that has an inlet leading to a cove in the summer. All you could see were tree branches with everything else submerged. It's amazing what a difference 20' in water height can make.

I read in the paper that the Housatonic River in CT had cars and sheds floating down it.

T

I went over the river just past 5:00. It is cranking but I have seen it higher.

It can be a wild river in the spring, even with regular run off. I recall standing on the bridge going into Woodsville NH years ago and watching the brown water churning away below, nasty tan foam and all kinds of flotsam.

My late, great grandpappy used to run logs down that river many moon ago, long before the Moore dam and others. Ever wonder what it was like back in the pre-'Flood Control' days? An event like this one must've been a sight and then some.

River even higher this morning but I have seen it about 5 feet higher. It will be interesting to see what happens with the rain coming. Rt159 drain well covered.