The AM Forum

The market dipped below 10,000 today, and without getting political, I'm more than a little concerned.
I see circuit breakers kicked in on short selling, and even "Mad Money” host Jim Cramer said it's time to bail out of the market.
Normally when folks are selling, its a prime time to be buying, but this time around I'm not sure.

Perhaps it is the winter coming, and people are just hunkering down for cold weather, but here on the coast of Maine, its like someone turned out the lights.
And its not just the end of tourist season either, I've lived here for 7 years now, and this feels much deeper. You can see it in people's faces, folks seem more dour and downcast, road traffic has dropped, and I've noticed the parking lots of the big box stores look pretty empty. Several of the area's small businesses have gone away, new car dealers are starving, and even the upscale restaurants seem to suffering.

For a couple of weeks I was on a news holiday to avoid the political madness, but lately I've gotten the itch to check things out, and it sure does not look good.
I even had a client come in last week desperately wanting to bail out of his two Audi TT convertibles and Cobra replica, and this was someone with deep pockets. On one hand, I was thinking its prime time to buy real estate and other hard assets, but have to wonder if we've seem the bottom yet. Having not lived through the big "D" word, the closest I came was the crash of 1987, I'm more than a little hesitant.

What's it like elsewhere in the country, anyone booming, or about the same?

Bruce,
I heard Cramer this morning.... A couple weeks ago he thought UTC stock would drop to $51, today it is just above $52. Oil is coming down so might be time to top off the tanks.
Imagine the dope who wanted to put our SS money in the stock market.

And now were putting $700 billion into the banks??

Where is all the SS money now?           Its in IOU's.

Rice is nice... good starch to go with the bean protein...  And then there is that deer eating the wifes flower garden..........


We are the morons that let this all happen

klc

Hey Bruce,

Nashville had a gas shortage a couple of weeks ago but now its seems back to normal, supply wise. However, people are not out on the streets as much, staying home saving gas, I guess.

Wonder if you got my email....

Staying home saving gas and listening to my Maine TransOceanic.....

Mark
KC4KFC

Just keep it non-political fellas, and give the moderators a break.  ;)
Know that's tough, but this more a survey about what you think and see in your areas.

We don't see a lot of area-specific reaction here in the Midwest, however, everyone is very concerned.  Jobs were already being cut by the thousands in the auto and RV industries largely due to high energy costs.  Many people are hurting or worried that it will be a tough winter. 

There is certainly plenty of blame to go around....so as far as the political debate, both sides have plenty to answer for!  It is, however, very strange observing the timing of this debacle.  Depends on how it is viewed, what effect it could have on the upcoming election.  It also seems, however, that due to many excesses, and lots of greed and corruption in and outside of government and on Wall Street, we could be in for some nasty times ahead.
 
On the optimistic side.....these things tend to be cyclic and eventually work themselves out.  It just might take awhile.  Owning "hard assets" and paying down as much debt as possible seem like good strategies but who knows what the best path is at this point.  Maybe if the sunspots return, the economy will improve.

73,  Jack, W9GT

Jack,
A Zit is a Zit and usually appears on Thursday before a big date.

I'm not sure you can talk about any relevant topic (even ham radio related) at present, and not have it interpreted by someone as "political".

That said, maybe this explains why Lowe's was so barren of customers this morning when I went to purchase some building material for ongoing projects.  There were only two check-out lines open, and there was no wait to pass through either one.  I was wondering where everyone was, but the connection didn't click.

I have some stock holdings in an old 401K, and I became eligible to roll it over into something else when I hit retirement age last year, but I hesitated.  It has taken some big ups and downs, but many of the options I was undecided about last year would have proved disastrous, so maybe it's just as well that I took no action.  Last time I checked, the stock (which is in a supermarket chain in the Los Angeles area) was holding up pretty well.  Regardless of what happens, people still have to eat. 

But even if I put it into something "safe" with a "guaranteed"  rate of return (or at least not to lose dollar value), such as a CD, it's not going to be worth anything if the value of the dollar(ette) drops below that of the paper it's printed on.

I was listening to a call-in show this morning (not one of those raving political maniacs who dominate the AM band), and their guest was some economist who formerly worked in the federal government, and there was a general opinion in the discussion that a full economic recovery is going to take years, if even within most of our lifetimes.

Great news !
with oil dropping , you can now afford to fill your gas tank , just in time for the repo man to tow your car from your foreclosed house. but you can buy a bicycle, made in china from walmart to go to your soon to be closed factory , which has been outsourced to india...

AH, can't wait to vote next month and reward the source.

Things are fine here. You'd never notice. although people might be taking it easy on the extra spending (which is a good thing we don't save enough anyway).

This will blow over, as it always has in the past, and the average Joe will be out a lot of hard earned cash while a priveledged few will have reaped a major PayDay.  CEO's and Bankers are the only ones who will get any benifit from the Bailout plan. We'll never see a dime.(Like gas has been under $90 a barrel for some time now,but we're STILL paying $3.50 a gal... go figure).  Look at the 1873 panic, the gov did the same thing, dumped a pile of cash into the economy, to keep things going.

How is it that a CEO can run a company into bankrupcy and STILL get paid all that money??  More importantly How can I get a job like that??  I KNOW I can run some big company into the ground, and probably a LOT faster than them too (I'm  Effecient).

Oh Yea,
Guns -- Check
Ammo -- Check
MREs -- Check
 

Shoot, I still have TONS of stuff left over from Y2K.

73 - Dave

We are “okay fine” here in Henrietta, NY!  There are a slew of us here that thought we were nearing retirement age, but a recalculation has moved that date out for some time.

My mother and father-in-law were over for dinner last night.  They both were kids during the great depression.  They grew up in a time when people had very little and had to make do with special skills that the new generations do not have.  Gardens were planted in the backyard.  Laundry was hung outside to dry (think of the energy Americans waste each year by drying their clothes in a dryer when the sun is out and the gentle breeze is blowing) and fixing broken and making do with items rather than throwing them out and by new.  There was an entire different mentality about saving money and only purchasing when you had the cash.  You squirreled away what you could so your kids could get an education and maybe do better than you.

There could be a whole new generation of us that may learn new skills on how to keep warm, find food and make do with very little.

fixing broken items.. no change for here. I have not bought a TV set in about 20 years, although I have bought a picture tube for it.. have manual can openers, all kinds of stuff for really going on the cheap if need be. so no worries. As for the bailout, remember it is your duty to pay as little tax as possible. Do a business from home, and get those honest deductions, it's easy. "Bailout? Not on my back!"

Bruce,

I am something of a economics and political junkie, and I spend a lot of time doing my share of following both topics in depth.

I saw this mess coming back in August of 2007. Following it closely, I sold off all of my stock positions back in mid-January of 2008, including those positions where I had shorted the market. I also advised my closest friends and family to do the same thing; get the hell out of the market at that time. Those that did (most of the ones whom I had counseled), have managed to preserve their capital. Those that did not have suffered heavy losses.

I believe the stock market will be highly volatile for an extended period, and it is currently far from testing the bottom. We may see the Dow possibly go below 8000. As such, this is not the time to be buying stocks and going long, which is what most folks do.

Insofar as the housing market goes, that is also far from testing the bottom, so I don't think this is currently a good buying opportunity either. The housing market may not bottom out for another 2 years; the market has a tremendous inventory of new and existing housing that has to be sold off before any kind of a recovery in that sector can take effect.

The best thing you can do for now is to preserve your capital in a safe place. Great opportunities will exist both in housing and the stock market for those who are willing to wait. Ignore the foolish advice of stockbrokers who tell you that now is the buying opportunity of a lifetime, unless you want to flush your hard-earned cash down the drain, as this market continues to tank. Remember, there are some stocks that are never coming back (witness the dot.com bust of 2000, etc.).

Just my 2 cents worth. I hate to see anyone lose money!

73,

Bruce

There is no SS money. It would have been far better in the stock market, cuz then the wasters and do nothings in Congress couldn't have spent it.

Oh yes, the SS money is still there.  In the form of paper IOU's signed by the US Treasury. Not to worry. As long as the gub'ment stays solvent, we'll all be OK.
 
Looking forward to the warm, happy sunny retirement years yet to come.

Good points Bruce, thanks for sharing, and I see wisdom there.

Between what you shared, and Dave kicked in about life during the Great Depression, the next four years are going to be most interesting.

So, I'll return to my theme of beans, bibles and bullets...hunker down, learn to live simply, and be self-sufficient.
Sounds like a good recipe, even not in times of economic crisis.

Maybe, just maybe, we might all emerge from this wiser, and more appreciative of what we have now.

Well I just took inventory

no joke
on hand we have

18,000 7.62x39
1200   30.06
800     12Gauge
150    50bmg
1300   45acp
50,000 .22 lr

150 lbs of black powder
600 sabots

2 cans of bush's baked beans
20 cans of hormel chilli (gotta talk to the wife about that one)
1 bible

hmmmm now i need a bunch of liquor to wash down all the damn squirrel im gonna be eating 

wheres a good place to buy MRE's?
would be good to have them around just in case

for me,   

TP   

   is very important


klc

Holy Dooms Day Batman!? :P
Geez Mike...I thought I had a few too many rounds around. I only have 1000 round of 9mm and a couple of hundred 9mm hollow points. Maybe a few hundred shoot shells for trap.

I just picked up a new 12 gauge Mossey Oak Browning BPS Deerhunter. Topped with a Bushnell 1.75 X 4.0 X32 Trophy scope. What a sweet weapon. The Winchester Sabot rounds are pricey..about $16.75 a box of five. Those are truckin 7/8 once loads running about 1900 feet per second with about 3100 ft/lbs of energy out of the muzzle. Here Bambi, here boy...BOOM! Just a couple of Vidalia onions and a cast iron skillet and survival in style....no squirels..yuck! : :-X

I am saving money for an AR-15. When the Muslim radical invade NH I will be prepared.

B(Tina)

Please ring a bell, or post a message, when the market hits bottom so I know when to get in.

count the number of dead bodies under the skyscaper windows and do not buy in until they reach a level of 4 ft high.

I want to know where my bailout is. Either give me a bailout, or a CIA briefcase stuffed wih cash that was headed to Iraq. I have to live on less than 950 bucks a month. Am I really supposed to believe that these businesses, after making trillions and having every law in the books turned in their favor, having both R's n D's kiss heir asses and rings, that they needed bailed out? If so, It's the greatest swindle in US history.

Where's my bailout? I paid into SSD for 24 years. if these people who headed these companies do not get serious jail time, then I say off with their heads.

I never actually bought any MRE's.  Uncle same always issued more than you SHOULD eat They are like 3K calories or better per meal, you can live on 1 a day (done it) and there were always guys who just wouldn't eat them and wanted to wait for hot rats. so i always ended up bringing some home.  Kids thought they were neat the first time...

I believe you can get deals on the net, but not real MREs.  Hunters Supply places often will sell you as many as you want too.

Gas prices expected to fall further (http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/07/news/economy/_prices/index.htm)

If there's one bright spot in a bad economy, it's that gasoline prices have fallen, and they're expected to drop even further.

As the global economy falters, demand for oil has dropped. And since the price of oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, analysts see more relief ahead at the pump.

"We ought to see prices drop pretty quickly," said American Automobile Association spokesman Geoff Sundstrom. "We're well on our way to $3 gas within the next week or two."

But...

Heat costs going up this winter (http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/07/news/economy/winter_heating.ap/index.htm).

Although global oil prices have plummeted, the cost of heating your home this winter will be a lot more expensive, especially for households that depend on fuel oil, the Energy Department predicted Tuesday.

Households that use fuel oil can expect to spend an average of $2,388 - or $449 more than last year - for the October-April heating season. Users of natural gas will pay less than half that, $1,010 on average, still $155 more than last year...

Users of electricity to heat homes will see the smallest increase, about 10% on average, followed by propane, 11%; natural gas, which is used in more than half of the nation's homes, 18%; and heating oil, used widely in the Northeast, 23%.

I wish they would tell that to our local power company, that gets its electricity from TVA.  They just announced a 20% hike in electric rates starting this month.

Hormel ???? ouch!!!

Dente More Stew is much better, Mikey.
Just take some Bisquik pancake batter and spoon it on top.... cover till it bakes and ya got some goooood dumplings.
It's a cabin favorite!

Hey guys, can we keep this off politics and just discuss the state of the country?  ;)
I know that's hard this time of year, but my intention was to get a dialogue going, not open up a political discussion.
 
Some posts have skated very close to the edge, in some cases over it, and the thread may be yanked if this continues.  :'(

I think right now we have a nice trading bottom in, mkt. very oversold.
Rally could last till election time.  After that ???
Is it THE bottom?  Time will tell...

                " Hormel ???? ouch!!! "

Well, ya can boil up pasta or some rice, and throw the stuff over it. It aint that bad...  I usda be porer back then.


Also,
       Hormel makes the miracle food "SPAM"

You can make lotsa gud stuff with it,
spam
       spam and eggs
             spam, baked beans and spam
                      spam, eggs, sausage and spam


I eat it when using the vikings.



klc

I would think we are due for a good sucker rally as we say good bye to the old crooks and hello to the new crooks.

dead cat bounce?


klc

this thread may be bailed out t anytime

I had to look that one up...

Dead cat bounce
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A dead cat bounce is a term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a spectacular decline in the price of a stock is immediately followed by a moderate and temporary rise before resuming its downward movement, with the connotation that the rise was not an indication of improving circumstances in the fundamentals of the stock. It is derived from the notion that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height".
The phrase has been used on the trading floors for many years. However the earliest recorded use of the phrase dates from 1985 when the Singaporean and Malaysian stock markets bounced back after a hard fall during the recession of that year. Journalist Christopher Sherwell of the Financial Times reported a stock broker as saying the market rise was a "dead cat bounce".

The reasons for such a bounce can be technical, as investors may have standing orders to buy shorted stocks if they fall below a certain level or to cover certain option positions. Once those limits are reached, the buy orders are activated and the sudden rise in demand causes the price of the stock to rise as well. The bounce may also be the result of speculation. Since bounces often occur, traders buy into what they hope is the bottom of the market, expecting a bounce and thereby reaping a quick profit. Thus, the very act of anticipating a bounce can create and magnify it.

A market rise after a sharp fall can only really be seen to be a "dead cat bounce" with the benefit of hindsight. If the stock starts to fall again in the following days and weeks, then it is a true dead cat bounce. If the market starts to climb again after the first short bounce, then the continued rise in price action would be considered a trend reversal and not a dead cat bounce ie. a short lived bounce before a further decline. This distinction only becomes obvious in hindsight and the evaluation may vary depending upon the initial and final points of reference.

Your tax dollars at work.
From today's abcnews.com

-----------------
Less than a week after the federal government committed $85 billion to bail out AIG, executives of the giant AIG insurance company headed for a week-long retreat at a luxury resort and spa, the St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, California, Congressional investigators revealed today.

The St. Regis Resort in Monarch Beach, California, was the site of a week-long luxury retreat for executives of the AIG insurance company, who headed there less than a week after the federal government committed $85 billion to bail out the company.
"Rooms at this resort can cost over $1,000 a night," Congressman Henry Waxman (D-CA) said this morning as his committee continued its investigation of Wall Street and its CEOs.

AIG documents obtained by Waxman's investigators show the company paid more than $440,000 for the retreat, including nearly $200,000 for rooms, $150,000 for meals and $23,000 in spa charges.

"Their getting their pedicures and their manicures and the American people are paying for that," said Cong. Elijah Cummings(D-MD).

AIG CEO Robert Willumstad and former CEO Martin Sullivan are both scheduled to testify today.

Sumptin' else to ponder...

"Sell Rosh Hashanah -- Buy Yom Kippur"

http://www.thestreet.com/_kirk/university/askthestreet/10309573.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

;-)

 ;D

Yep, Waxman wasting your tax dollars. Those hollering the loudest are the problem, not the solution.

MREs? Get Mountain House Freeze Dried food at Walmart. That stuff is good.

 I'm for keeping Politics where it Belongs...

  an my rifles where they belong....

State of the country...eh.....business as usual.....if ya don't got it...ya ain't gotta worry about it...another bill is being paid...Big Deal....

What am I doing in the city?  Both of my parents were on farms during the Great Depression, one in Idaho, one in Ohio.  They bartered eggs, milk, butter, chickens, cows, whatever, to get by.  They had no money but they had food.

They're all gone now so I can't ask them how they managed for seed.  I do know they ran those farms with darned little gasoline, no big V8's, small stuff and horses.

LOL! I was pointing to our horses when an old friend recently stopped by.
I told him we were all set for eats if worse came to worse...Two nicely-muscled 900# Arabians..

I'd do laying hens, maybe geese, but fence-proofing them from the foxes and coyotes would be pricey. You got to lay heavy wire fence into 6" of concrete that they can't dig under.

My neighbor has had nothing but coyote problems and gave up with raising chickens and ducks.

There are so many rabbits, mule deer and elk around here for the taking.
Time to fire up old Betsy, my Winchester 94 30-30. And some .22 cal sabats.

Rabbit is good eating. Nothing better except elk tenderloin off the grill.. Squirrel (tree rats) and raccoon go to the dogs.

Buddly, swing by and take your pick! Mulie or bunny prepared Greek-style. Poached with oregano, lemon butter and steamed spinach. (Drool!)

If not, how about some grilled Buffalo.. Just enough grease to make the grill sing. On warm toasted buttered buns..

Don't forget the possum.. mmm

Plenty of squirrel around, I picked up a Henry Repeating .17 Cal HMR I found i liked it so much i bought their 44 mag. very nice well made rifles.

http://www.henryrepeating.com/

Groundhog is not too bad.

If/when it comes to that point, too many of our urban brethren will be cultivating a taste for  'Long Pig'.  This is why I prefer to be called an 'Amateur Radio Operator' instead of a 'Ham'.

73 - Dave

With all the gloom and doom being expressed, I wonder if there are any positive thoughts about how we can weather the storm and come out the other side of this bad spell?  We might see such things as more bartering and exchange of goods and services as well as more attempts at self-sufficiency by fixing things ourselves and doing more for ourselves.  We might be seeing the end or at least a slowdown of the "throw away society".  It might also become a necessity to become proficient at basic skills of survival.  However,  we are certainly not the same...largely agricultural society that we were earlier in the last century.  A very large percentage of our population is very dependent on a very small percentage, such as producers of basic needs such as food and energy.

73,  Jack, W9GT

I bought this beauty a few years ago, Its a Browning BAR (Browning Automatic Rifle). It's a tack driver up to 200 yds. The beauty of the 06' is you can load it for almost any N.A game & the ubiquitous 30.06 cartridge is available anywhere & everywhere ammo is sold. The BAR rivals many bolt actions for accuracy.

As to the current economic mess, it began with political correctness run amok. It may end with another worldwide depression. PC will eventually kill us all unless we kill it first.

Maybe Irb was right not depending on the gov't for anything.
   I'm going to sell aluminum beaks so people can pick crap with the chickens.I will have a cheap source of aluminum when all the airlines go bankrupt.
Why would anyone want Meals Rejected by Etheopians?....................Lee 

A chicken will eat its own crap....now that is a closed loop system.
Aluminum beak may be a problem for key hole birds.

The problem simply boils down to spending more money than one has to spend, and paying for the rest on credit.  Just about everyone is in the same boat, particularly the federal government and the American consumer. 

Damn, I hate that word.  I find it offensive to be called a "consumer".

The crooks involved in the present scandal simply took advantage of the opportunity at hand.  Their bad decisions may have exacerbated the immediate situation, but the fundamental problem was inevitable.

I read somewhere recently that the average US resident owes something like $10,000 in credit card debt alone.

And that's on top of monthly mortgage, medical and car payments, not to mention living expenses.

This is a fairly low property-value area, but the cost of a typical mortgage, car payment, real estate taxes and utilities takes about 100% of most people's monthly take-home pay round here (a low-wage largely blue collar area).  God forbid unexpected medical expenses. The only way the average Joe Blowe could live, let alone afford the big-screen TV, is on credit.

I am glad my property is paid for in full, although we do owe a few thousand that my wife insisted that we borrow for some renovations to the house, but otherwise I do almost all my own house repair and maintenance, pretty much my full time job since I retired from school-teaching. 

I had to re-roof the house last year due to storm damage.  The insurance company paid the cost of replacing the original asphalt shingle roof, but I opted instead to replace it with a metal roof, and paid the difference (it was about twice as expensive) out of my own pocket - not on credit.  The roof is guaranteed for 50 years, for whatever that's worth.

Hopefully my pension fund and SS won't go bankrupt before I take the big dirt nap, and hopefully the dollarette will retain at least enough of its value to live on.

I hold some stock in a supermarket chain out in  L.A., along with a mutual fund in an old 401K.  Surprisingly, the stock has held its value (reckon people have to eat), but the mutual fund has lost about 20% since the faeces first came in contact with the fan blades.

Well,

 My First order of business would be...Securing Water and the purification of, then secure shelter, securing food sources etc, a big problem will be Waste, human waste...the removal of...the bigger the population the bigger the problem...obviously...Avoid crowds at all cost would be beneficial...

 In the proposed up and coming so called "Crash",  Land, Money, personal items would be of little use or worth in the immediate onset, because as well as the Shock of said "crash" having it's hey day there would be also an immediate interest by the people who feel entitled to be in power that has a great interest in the control of the spiraling mass... once again avoid any crowd...Good Luck there...Terror would again be the order of the day...that could come from any where...toss up..avoid any news media...best bet...

 Firearms,..well yes well no... ya can't eat or drink gun powder,..Situational awareness would be the call, an survival decisions are best based on first thought first action as needed..once again avoid any interaction...best bet..

 My thinking is based on the fact that if an when this does happen, "if it happens at all"....it will Not be like 29 or 13 or 90 ...pick a day it will not be even close...it will be on it's own order an like nothing that has never been experienced before, but by the fact that yes a crashing is happening at the onset..today the game is global not local...

 If it Happens at all,.... it's much easier to control what's at hand by simple rumor and loss of certain thinking's and rights...simply by scare tactics...Sheep are better lead through their natural instincts...

I'd rather talk about squirrel hunting... :)



 

 

 

 

Time to hang the traitors Irb.

That just might be the cry you hear in the streets Frank!

But they (http://www.historywiz.com/terror.htm) might decide that YOU are the traitor.

That is a Given my friend an one that i never thought would be seen, A standing traitor in ones own country convicted without prior proof...just an interest in Liberty, Justice and the American Way.

I imagine as well talk of population surgery is on the agenda..Again.., i seen where his majesty "Mr Windows" gave a sum of 30 million towards population control ?..something on that order i read somewhere, and others of High monetary worth giving large sums towards the true problem.

It will be interesting to see what Solution is arrived at and what course of action will be taken, the "AIDS" epidemic has failed.

What the hell, we're suffering another setback from the Crowns Central Banking System, that which at one time "was" removed from our Soil, it's amazing how those of such High Esteem have such little interest in human advancement.

What was the word in the sixties..."Pigs"....ya......

   Here in rural West Virginia, many people are somewhat self sufficient. If things really meltdown economically, deer will be the first to go. If I had to put meat on the table and had only one rifle, it would be a .22LR rifle. We may find ourselves eating small game. Ammo is cheap-about $13 for a box of 500.
    There may be a silver lining to all this economic havoc. It may have a cleansing effect on our "material generation madness". (I knew we were in trouble when I saw people buying food at the grocery with credit cards.)
    Hey, we can always barter Boat Anchors! Better than money in the bank.

Don,
How do you figure I could be a traitor?

Don, your right on with your link.  I also took a course in F. Revolution at Marietta.
Reading about the French Revolution may enlighten us about who are the traitors.  Just about anyone.

Revolution derived from deteriorating or collapsing economies rapidly leads to total chaos. - Egalitariansim run amok.-  Class warefare is the chief tool. (always promoted by hidden interests to further consolidation of power and riches for a very few.)

"Off with their heads!"

First you start with the King, then his court, then anyone who knew or had business with them, then any businessman who's richer than you, then everone perceived to be any richer than you, then all the teachers, academics or anyone who wears glasses for that matter (have to be reading books...),   it stops only when the mob is very tired, hungry and with no one else to blame than themselves.  China's 'great leap forward' is another good example.

Thus take over the real tyrants.   In the French case, Napolean; Chinese, Mao.( already there and worried that the country was slipping away from him.)

So careful what you wish for; 
If "they" do come pouring out of the cities, scavenging all ahead of them, a single farmer or several families, even equipped with an arsenal will not be able to stop them.  You'll have to band together, at least several tens to hundreds to have the firepower to stop the hoards.  That still doesn't guarantee long term food supply, ability to raise crops, feed, or livestock.  They'll be toast to the hoards.

  But you survivalists really don't have to worry.  Who was it that said... "There's never a revolution until the majoriity miss three meals a day, for several days"(that's only the meals.)   This fat and sassy country is very far from that.  Fuel, -energy is extremely cheap compared to a horse and carriage economy, despite what one perceives as $4.00/gal gas. .. .for a two ton traveling machine to carry a 0.075 ton man.... Imagine!  What wealth we take for granted every day.- The infrastructure we take for granted.

But if worse came to worse, are we self sufficient in WV?   Yeah, right; most of the population never slaughtered an animal (eeeuwe, yucky!), raised chickens, cut hay, fed anything but themselves... or for that matter ever done any chores.  They'll catch on fast about where to go to loot though.  I wonder how fast a "Bambi" can be converted to a useful citizen? 

Yeah, a lot of us have rifles...  but the deer will go very fast.  I won't elaborate on all the sci-fi story scenarios I've read and outcomes possible.  You guys have read them.  Suffice to say that one story had a bunch of foraging rapists (and that's describing them lightly) forcing a child to dance on a red-hot stove.

Our best bet is rational, cool thought and cooperative effort to prevent any sort of catastrophic meltdown.

Hey, Rick.

A large portion of our American urban population has absolutely no idea where their food comes from other than "from the supermarket". Never visited or even seen a working farm.

Incredible.

Bear in mind none of these terrible scenarios ever happened, even in the 1930s. It takes a major crisis for Americans to set aside their personal opinions and pull together, and we're not at that point (yet?).

-------
Really.  I still own my father's old single shot .22.  As I kid I dropped my spending money into .22 shorts (cheaper than LR's) and murdered scores of beer cans and soda bottles.  I never thought of it as a hunting rifle but then again, when someone says hunting, I think of deer or going after game birds with a shot gun.   I also have his old double barrel 16 guage but I'm afraid to shoot that thing.  It might blow up in my face.   

 There is something satisfying about an old bolt action rifle if the barrel is still good.

...the government of France, was bankrupt and was facing a serious financial crisis.

The crisis came about primarily because of an inefficient and unfair tax structure, outdated medieval bureaucratic institutions, and a drained treasury which was the result of aiding the Americans during the American Revolution, long wars with England, overspending, and an inequitable tax system which placed the burden of taxation on those least able to pay...

http://www.historywiz.com/frenchrev.htm

I have read and printed this entire website five years ago before all the advertisements were inserted.  I'm sure there are some areas of interest to a few of us on here.

http://www.endtimesreport.com/

Some ramblings; I hope they stay on topic.

...and I have delighted in viewing the John Adams series recently shown on HBO.  Got the CD. We were a much more self sufficient society in those days.
 
The French Revolution was a culmination of a lot of what Don said; the general nature of a bankrupt Europe after centuries of gems like the Hundred Years war, the continuous later wars between France, England and Spain.  Many wars were started by family; royal cousins mad at each other for perceived slights.  Sport in those days consisted of sailing a few frigates into a peaceful enemy harbor, shooting up the docks, commercial shipping and the harbor town before the land forts could get a bead on you. 

Not too many  years earlier, landing boats on your shores meant you fought to the death for family and survival or were consigned to slavery.  Not for nothing is one of the stanzas in "Hail Brittannia," (closet thing to an National anthem), "Hail Brittania, ruler of the waves, " ... "We will never, never, never be slaves again."

Our revolution was pretty much an extension of the Queen Anne series of wars, re-named the French and Indian war for our domestic consumption.

Sort of like "My Country Tis of Thee...." instead of "God Save The King," we tend to borrow a lot, including our common law. 
What we've forgotten is how to enforce those laws.  The British (hell, the Americans for that matter) of the Eighteenth century would be appalled at our lame attempts of politically correct enforcement these days.

I see the Dow melt-down continued today; Perhaps tomorrow it will bottom.
GM stock sells for less than $5.oo; what it was in Truman's Administration.   Ford's now less than $2.00. This will be interesting.  I think the market is correcting itself and showing pretty much what a dollar's worth. 
One theory posits that a lot of smart money is "getting out of the country" while the gettin's good.
I leave the reasons for a more political arena.  ;D

Interesting discussion.  I'll add my thoughts....

This bear market has all the ear markings of a coming deflation. That is the biggest danger we face.

Deflations usually wipe out both equities and credit instruments first. Then they go after prices of commodities. Collectibles are toast.  Cash becomes king and becomes the most valuable asset.  Even gold gets discounted as shown by past history. Confidence gets shattered.  Unemployment goes into double digits, etc, etc.

At the present time, we are in the so-called "realization phase" of the bear market.  The Average Joe finally acknowledges stocks are going down and we are in a bear market for sure.  We are also in the acceleration phase on the downside which means more downside is yet to come. There will be tremendous rallies in-between, of course, but the investors who hold on as we sink to new lows will finally sell out at the lows, wherever they finally rest.

If this was still a bull market, this current fearful environment would be a tremendous buying opportunity. However, being a bear market generates merely sucker rallies.

In a bull market we climb a wall of worry ever higher. In a bear market, we slide down a slope of hope. The talking heads on TV will continue to find reasons to buy stocks and other investments.

We are witnessing history that will be talked and read about a hundred years from now.

I have no predictions other than to say to raise cash and worry more about your assets and investments eroding rather than return. US T-bills hit 0% yield recently. This tells us that the marketplace cares only about preserving money right now. Return is secondary.

What amazes me is that this bull market (and economy including real estate) lasted for so long and went so far. Just like any over-done market, the corrections are of the same magnitude.

In a bull market, the government can have a tremendous effect on the optimism and higher prices, cuz that is the trend. However, in a bear market the government can only fail trying to stop what is inevidable - a major bear market.

In the past 26 years, we have witnessed many bull market downside corrections. These can be sharp and scary, but the market always recovered to new highs. We're in a new ball game now. Buying dips ( as shown recently) is financial suicide. General Motors looked like a tremendous buy at 10 recently. It closed at  4.76 today.  Signs of a deflation.

Oil had its run-up and now appears headed back down. Deflation knows no bounds.

It's interesting that only 26 years ago the Dow Jones stood at 767. Can you imagine the shock if the Dow simply retraced back to this level again? That would be a 95% loss from the 15,000 high made last October, 2007.

Again, I'm not making predictions here, I'm just pointing out the possibilities. Deflation is even worse than inflation.  Though, it's hard to imagine deflation when the government is pumping out money like a hyper-inflation freight train. I'll still put my bet on deflation. Cash is king.  As long as you preserve your assets at 0% return, when others around you are losing their's, that is really a relative gain.

History in the making. We live in exciting times for sure.


Good luck -

T

I think Bear season starts in November! ;D

Thanks, Tom. Excellent insight.

Yes, very well expounded Tom.

I only have this to add.  ;D The $767 Dow of 26 years ago need to be "corrected," yeah, right,for inflation of what we used to call "Carter Dollarettes."   So what's 26 years worth?  Lesseee.., the old rule of 7% for 10 years, halves (or doubles) you money or at a higher rate, 10% for 7 years halves or doubles. 

The 7% rate sounds about right (you don't really believe Gov'ts published 3.4% do you?) so the new Dow low might be $5000 to $6000. 

If you do believe the Gov'ts published inflation rate, then the Dow will sinkvery low.  How's that for a Gotcha? 

Sorry, I seem to be adding more, heh, heh.

Yes, cash at any amount and buried in the back yard has value  If, and this may be a big 'if',/i] people have enough trust in it to trade it for goods in kind.   Never forget the first rule of modern economics. All paper money is based on trust.  This where I differ a little concerning valuable metals, e.g., gold and silver.  One of the reasons for gov't mints, etc. was to certifiy that a coin was true exchange, uncut or shaved. 

Who and how safe are the houses that hold your electronic 'cash' these daysj?  And that explains much of the melt down, - erosion of trust.  Trading stocks are just the tip of the iceberg.

The crazy part:

Everyone's acting like the country's been nuked.

The reality is, everything's the same as last year. The roads, water, infrastructure are all still there and functioning. Ranchers are still ranching, chickens are still laying and farmers are farming, their dirt didn't disappear. No one's job skills disappeared.

It's all largely irrational fear which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The false economy we've been in the last 15 - 20 years has finally caught up with us.  Now things will settle out, no more false economy, at least for a while.  The poor ethics and bad management that put us here will probably stay unfortunately.  So another cycle begins.

"The most valuable commodity in the universe is fear."

from: World War Z - An Oral history of the Zombie Wars by Max Brooks

Boy I picked a good book to read this week while on travel.

Mike WU2D

the only possible thing I can add to this is the reports coming out that OPEC Is holding an emergency meeting about how to get oil jacked back up to its artificial record high.  Guess the Camel Jockeys cant make enough money @ 80 to fund our sleeper cells anymore

If we had real money, there would be no inflation or deflation.  A dollar would have constant purchasing power, year after year.

The government and big business both love inflation, as long as they can keep it under "control". 

By failing to index taxes to inflation, your tax bill automatically increases from year to year until congress passes its periodic tax cut.  Minimum wage automatically decreases from year to year until congress passes an increase. The government makes out. 

Salaries, wages and pension COLA's lag the actual devaluation of the dollarette. Everything goes up in price except working people's personal income. Business makes out.

My state pension gives an annual COLA equal to the CPI - up to a maximum of 3%.  So if we have 9% inflation, the increase is still only 3%.

The banks like inflation because it prevents people from keeping their money in a safe or stuffing it away in the mattress or burying it in the back garden.

Everybody benefits from inflation except those who work for a living.

Bill said:
FDR said:
Bill, I agree with you. I look back over last 15 years and I'm now making double the $'s I made when I started this job. There has been a significant increase in durable goods and grocery prices, but that has been in large part due to the run-up of oil. Excluding gasoline and oil, my grocery bill has only gone up about 20%. I guess everybody wants to make more money and will bitch when they don't make it enough! I bitch too, but in retrospect, I'm not too bad off and I'm still chuggin' along.

The one sad note is that the one Fleetwood plant located about 2 miles from my house is closing down at the end of the year. I don't know how they survived this long. Fleetwood makes those large mobile home cruisers you see towing a car behind them. I would have thought they would have curtailed operations when gas and oil prices were at their levels two years ago. I guess the market finally caught up to them.

On another note. Has anyone paid attention to what is happening in the EU? I guess it is begining to show some "stress fractures". None of the countries can come to an agreement on the best way to solve their financial crisis. Hell, Ireland pretty much said, "Screw you! We don't want to be part of your union." While England and Italy have pretty much floundered in different directions.

The dollar is slowly gaining on the euro. We will clean house soon in Washington. I'm hoping the day after election day feels like the crap you take Friday after Thanksgiving. I'll be looking to buy.

The current financial crisis is compared to the collapse of the Soviet Union

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/28/usforeignpolicy.useconomicgrowth

In Putin's eyes the USSR will rise again as a world power with plenty of cash and oil.